Dalton Kincaid ($5,000; knee) missed his second straight practice Thursday, putting the tight end in serious danger of missing this Sunday’s matchup against the undefeated Chiefs. Plus, Keon Coleman (wrist) will be inactive Sunday, per HC Sean McDermott. On a positive note, Amari Cooper ($5,700) is trending towards returning from a two-game absence. He told the media Thursday that things are heading in the right direction to potentially play, per the Athletic’s Joe Buscaglia.
Even if Cooper plays, the ex-Brown is still learning this Buffalo offense and may be limited coming off the injury. Nevertheless, there will be extra targets to go around if Kincaid joins Coleman on the sidelines, and Curtis Samuel ($3,300) and Mack Hollins ($3,800) would stand to benefit from that situation.
With Kincaid only available for 24% of the snaps last week vs. the Colts, and both Coleman and Cooper inactive, Samuel caught three of his eight targets for 35 yards (7.4 FPTS). Hollins caught all four of his targets for 86 yards (12.6 FPTS), while ranking first and second in route rate for the Bills, respectively.
Running a route on nearly every one of their team’s drop backs would be the expectation for Samuel and Hollins if Kincaid sits this Sunday, but Hollins will be the better target of the two. Samuel has been a better target earner than Hollins this season, but the latter has been more productive, with 12.3 yards per reception, compared to an underwhelming 7.9 yards per reception for Samuel. Furthermore, Hollins has found the paydirt three times this season, while Samuel has yet to score a touchdown.
As you can see, Hollins brings much higher upside than Samuel. Hollins will be a solid WR3 for season-long leagues and a decent GPP flier for DFS if Kincaid is out this Sunday.
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