The NBA Cup kicked off last night and brought several notable upsets and thrilling games. Tonight’s slate will return to normal stakes and normal floor colors, with 11 games of NBA action taking place.
Most notably, the Cleveland Cavaliers will be looking to remain undefeated against the Philadelphia 76ers after Joel Embiid made his debut last night. The Boston Celtics will face the Brooklyn Nets after their shocking upset loss to the Atlanta Hawks. The Clippers will be facing off with the Rockets and the Lakers will play the Grizzlies. On the second consecutive night, the Trail Balzers and Timberwolves will also be playing, with different stakes for this regular season affair.
You can check out each matchup on DraftKings Sportsbook; here are my favorite player props for November 13.
Bennedict Mathurin Over 18.5 Points (-115)
The Indiana Pacers are set to face off with the Orlando Magic who are still without Paolo Banchero. The Pacers have their own young player from that same 2022 draft class who is amid his breakout. Former sixth-overall pick Bennedict Mathurin is making an early case for the Most Improved Player award and is proving to be more vital to the future of the Pacers than many have recognized.
So far this season, Mathurin has averaged 19.4 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 1.9 assists. He has been shooting 55.3% from the field overall and 50.0% from beyond the arc. Mathurin has stepped into the starting lineup after coming off the bench for the first five games and has averaged 23.0 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 2.2 assists in his five games as a starter. He has played 35.1 minutes per game across the last five games after playing 25.8 minutes per game across the opening games off the bench.
Mathurin plays the game with a fiery competitiveness and is receiving additional opportunities to produce points. He scored 38 points the last time he was on the floor when playing the Knicks. The Pacers have faced off with the Magic twice already this season. In the first matchup, he played just 13:42 of game time and fell below his point prop. They also squared off a week ago in which Mathurin dropped 20 points. He is receiving plenty of additional opportunities and shooting the ball extremely well. Expect Mathurin to be in attack mode and eclipse 18.5 points for the fifth time in six games.
Jarrett Allen Over 10.5 Rebounds (-115)
The Cleveland Cavaliers are off to a 12-0 start and are the lone undefeated team remaining in the NBA. They have a great chance to continue this tonight as they face off with the Philadelphia 76ers, with Cleveland entering at 9.5-point favorites. Joel Embiid made his return to the floor last night but was not able to fix the Sixers’ rebounding struggles. On the season overall, Philadelphia ranks dead last in rebounds per game across the NBA. In Embiid’s first game, they were outrebounded 47-40 by the Knicks.
Embiid boldly proclaimed this offseason that he would likely never play back-to-back games for the rest of his career. He walked this back in last night’s postgame saying he desires to play and it will be the team’s decision. With or without Embiid on the floor, expect Jarrett Allen to make a strong impact on the boards.
So far this season the All-Star center has averaged 10.6 points per game and has recorded 11 or more rebounds in eight of the 12 games. He also recorded seven consecutive games with 11+ rebounds during games 4-10 this season. Expect the poor rebounding from the Sixers to open the door for Allen to produce a strong rebounding output and for him to eclipse 10.5 rebounds again tonight.
Kyle Kuzma Over 26.5 Points, Rebounds, & Assists (-110)
Injuries have already played a factor in the season for Kyle Kuzma. The Wizards forward has already missed time with a groin injury and has played just four games this year. In these four games, he has averaged 17.3 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 2.8 assists per game. This is a notable step back from the output he produced last year as Kuzma averaged 22.2 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 4.2 assists. This has largely been due to some poor shooting as Kuzma has connected on just 34.3% of his shots from the field in the first four games.
Expect Kuzma to have some positive shooting regression and return to his expected average with a larger sample size. In tonight’s matchup, the Wizards are set to face off with the Spurs. While Victor Wembanyama headlines an intimidating Spurs defense, Kuzma eclipsed 26.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists in 48 of the 70 games (68.5%) he played in last year.
Count on this prop line to begin creeping up and for Kuzma to return to form as he gets more games under his belt. He has attempted at least 16 shots in every game he played in this season and there is enough volume available for Kuzma to reach this number. Take advantage of this before the number increases and look for Kumza to eclipse 26.5 points, rebounds, and assists in tonight’s game.
Jalen Brunson Under 26.5 Points (-125)
The New York Knicks will be playing on the second night of a back-to-back and face-off with the Chicago Bulls tonight. Jalen Brunson suffered a concerning ankle turn last night that forced him to the locker room in the first play of the second half. Brunson returned to the floor last night but did not seem to have his typical level of pop and cutting abilities. Brunson is currently not listed on the injury report, however, ankles can oftentimes worsen overnight once the adrenaline wears off.
Overall this season, Jalen Brunson has averaged 24.3 points per game. He has been held to under 26.5 points in six of the 10 games. New York is still adjusting to the new pieces added this offseason and Brunson has differed more this season than has typically been the case. The Villanova product averaged 28.7 points per game and attempted 21.4 shot attempts per game last season. He is attempting just 18.5 shot attempts per game so far this year.
There will be a stretch where Brunson’s scoring output takes off, but it feels premature at this point. Expect Brunson to have his moments but ultimately remain under 26.5 points for the seventh time this season.
Bradley Beal Over 21.5 Points (-105)
The Phoenix Suns took a notable hit after a strong start to the season while Kevin Durant is missing time with a calf injury. Durant ranked 28th in the NBA in usage rate at the time of the injury and has averaged 27.6 points per game on 17.9 shot attempts per game. It will take the rest of the Suns roster stepping up to overcome this and Bradley Beal should be looked at as the primary beneficiary.
So far this season, Beal has averaged 17.8 points per game and is attempting 13.6 shots per game. However, he has scored 28 and 24 points in the first two games without Durant, shooting the ball 15+ times in each game. The Suns will be facing off with the Sacremento Kings tonight, who rank 19th in opponent points per game.
Beal has been one of the better scorers in the NBA throughout his career and has averaged over 21.5 points per game in seven different seasons. Expect him to remain in attack mode and take advantage of the additional shots on the table without Durant. Look for him to tally 22+ points for the third consecutive game.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
