Week 11. Do we get a bounce back game from De’Von? Miami hosts the Raiders, so is that a rhetorical question? Achane is one of the most dynamic weapons and can take it the house on any play, putting up a seven. Let’s attack this slate with aggression, causing us to blow up like Mt. St. Helens, but never forget to utilize some discretion. Some players are due for regression while others are simply out there for possession. Expertly handle the curves like a McLaren while charting the right course like Magellan. Then, I reckon, that our obsession will be rewarded with a trip to the Garden of DFS Eden.
There are 11 games on the main slate. DraftKings Sportsbook has four games with an O/U of at least 45: BAL/PIT (48.5), JAX/DET (47), SEA/SF (50.5) and KC/BUF (45.5). There is one game with a total of 40 or below: MIN/TEN (39.5).
There is one double-digit spread favorite: DET -13 over JAX. There are three games within a field goal: NO -1 over CLE, DEN -2.5 over ATL, and BUF -2.5 over KC. There are four home dogs: TEN, CHI, PIT, and NE.
Four teams are on bye: ARI, CAR, NYG, and TB.
DISCLAIMER: This piece is written early in the week, so it won’t factor in injuries or lineup changes that occur closer to Sunday.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st].
Quarterback
Stud
Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks ($6,600) – Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen are very tempting, as the floor/ceiling combos are so high with both due to their rushing prowess. I think PIT has a chance to stymie Jackson a bit, though, while I have the utmost respect for Steve Spagnuolo. Therefore, while I think ceiling games are always within the range of outcomes for those two quarterbacks, the probabilities of it happening are mitigated somewhat.
I will drop down over $1,000 in price to Purdy, who I think could match or even exceed the fantasy production of both Jackson and Allen.
Purdy has put up at least 20 FPTS in each of the last four games. One of those was against SEA, finishing 18-of-28 for 255 yards and three touchdowns. While the second game between division rivals is often lower scoring and more tightly contested, the 49ers did not have Christian McCaffrey in that one, but now they do. Over that span, Purdy hasn’t been a zero in the rushing department either, scoring three touchdowns.
Oh, and this game has the highest total on the slate at 50.5.
Other Options – Lamar Jackson ($8,000), Josh Allen ($7,800), Jared Goff ($6,300), Bo Nix ($6,200)
Value
Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens ($5,900) – The Ravens have one of the best rush defenses in the league while possessing one of the leakiest pass defenses. The path of least resistance is transparent. Since being named the starter, Wilson has attempted at least 28 passes in all three games and thrown six touchdowns with only one interception. He has weapons galore on the outside and there should be plenty of splash plays.
Other Options – Geno Smith ($5,700)
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Running Back
Stud
Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks ($8,300) – We so back, baby! In his season debut last week, McCaffrey received 88% of the snaps, seven targets, and two red zone opportunities. While the production wasn’t mind-blowing, rushing for 39 yards and catching six passes for 68 yards, it was his first game in a long time. This game has a robust total and there should be plenty of chances for CMC to produce those fantasy goodies.
Other Options – Alvin Kamara ($8,200), Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,300), De’Von Achane ($7,200), Kenneth Walker III ($7,000), Kareem Hunt ($6,700) if Pacheco doesn’t play, David Montgomery ($6,500)
Value
Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints ($6,000) – The price isn’t cheap, Chubb could get game-scripted out of this game, and he just hasn’t been that productive in the three games since returning. All the injuries have likely sapped some juice out of Chubb, but the last two matchups have been absolutely brutal, as the Chargers and Ravens have two of the best run defenses in the league. In Week 11, Chubb gets to face one of the most Charmin-soft rush defenses. Whether the offensive line can open holes is another question, but the opportunities should be there, and the Browns do want to run the ball. Chubb has seen 10 red zone chances over the last three weeks. I think he scores this week. Not one, not two, not…
Other Options – Jaylen Warren ($5,300), Audric Estime ($4,500)
Wide Receiver
Stud
Davante Adams/Garrett Wilson, New York Jets vs. Indianapolis Colts ($7,200/$7,100) – Over the last two weeks, Adams has received 11 and 13 targets while Wilson has gotten 10 and six. This passing offense is very concentrated, and I think both players will eat. The Colts play zone defense at the highest rate in the league at 86% and both receivers have done well against that type of defense. So has Aaron Rodgers, who has the sixth-best Pass EPA against zone defenses.
Other Options – Cooper Kupp ($7,500), Tyreek Hill ($7,400), Puka Nacua ($7,300), George Pickens ($7,000), Deebo Samuel ($6,800), Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($6,500), Calvin Ridley ($6,200)
Value
Jauan Jennings, San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks ($5,300) – If I love Purdy, I have to love some of his receivers too. After missing three games, Jennings returned in Week 10 and received 11 targets, catching seven for 93 yards. We know about the ceiling when he hauled in 11 of 12 targets for 175 yards and three touchdowns back in Week 3.
Other Options – Courtland Sutton ($5,900), Jakobi Meyers ($5,600), Jerry Jeudy ($5,400), Cedric Tillman ($5,300), Ricky Pearsall ($4,900), Mike Williams ($4,100)
Tight End
Stud
Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills ($6,300) – There really isn’t much to write here. Kelce is still one of the best tight ends in the league, is catching passes from Patrick Mahomes, and has been peppered with 12, 16, and 12 targets over the last three contests.
Other Options – Brock Bowers ($5,800), David Njoku ($5,500), Evan Engram ($5,200)
Value
TJ Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings at Tennessee Titans ($4,700) – The Titans have a good pass defense and have allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points on average to tight ends this season. That said, Hockenson is one of the better tight ends in the league and has now two games under his belt after returning from injury. In his season debut, Hockenson caught three of four targets for 27 yards. Last week, he grabbed eight of nine targets for 72 yards. Last season, Hockenson was second among all tight ends in targets despite missing two games.
Other Options – Mark Andrews ($4,600), Taysom Hill ($4,500), Jonnu Smith ($3,800), Dawson Knox ($3,500) if Kincaid is out, Brock Wright ($3,300) if LaPorta is out
Defense/Special Teams
Stud
Vikings DST at Tennessee Titans ($3,700) – The Vikings DST has allowed the fourth-lowest Pass EPA and blitzes at the second-highest rate in the league. Will Levis has the sixth-lowest Pass EPA when blitzed. Levis has thrown seven interceptions and been sacked 22 times this season. The Vikings DST has racked up 15 interceptions, five fumbles, 30 sacks, and scored three touchdowns. The unit has put up double-digit FPTS in seven games.
Other Options – Lions DST ($3,800), Packers DST ($3,500), Rams DST ($3,200), Dolphins DST ($3,000)
Value
Broncos DST vs. Atlanta Falcons ($2,900) – The Broncos DST has allowed the second-lowest Pass EPA and eighth-lowest Rush EPA. The unit has racked up seven interceptions, five fumbles, 35 sacks, two safeties, and two touchdowns on the season. This game will be in Mile High and Cousins has had a lower completion percentage and quarterback rating outdoors compared to indoors.
Other Options – Jets DST ($2,800), Browns DST ($2,600)
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st].
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
