The 76ers have gotten off to a 2-7 start, as the injury gods have not been kind. Paul George missed the first five games of the season and Tyrese Maxey has been out for the last two. But good news has been bestowed upon the City of Brotherly Love as Joel Embiid will make his season debut on Tuesday.
Embiid was dealing with a knee issue and was suspended for three games after shoving a reporter, but he’s back!
Best Joel Embiid Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
The lines for Embiid are 25.5 points, 9.5 rebounds, 4.5 assists and 1.5 three-pointers on DraftKings Sportsbook.
This is a tricky situation because we have no idea how much Embiid is going to play, and he’s a per-minute beast when he does. Last season, he averaged a robust 1.75 FPTS per minute. Conventional wisdom would be that Philadelphia will not only ease him back into action but cap his minutes as well.
Last season, Embiid missed four and three games in late December/early January. He played 31 minutes in both of the return games. After missing 29 games in February and March, Embiid played 30 minutes.
30 minutes on Tuesday would seem to be viable, but it could be much lower. I highly doubt he gets more than that, but we just don’t know.
Most of the lines are skewed towards the under. The only line paying plus-money is the three-pointers at +130 for Over 1.5.
The big difference between this season and last is that Embiid played around 25 games before missing a stretch of games. As a result, he was in game shape. Tuesday’s game will be Embiid’s season debut. So, even if he gets close to 30 minutes, which I doubt, it’s hard to imagine him being in game shape, especially having to guard Karl-Anthony Towns on the defensive end of the court.
Therefore, I’m taking the Under 25.5 points at -120. I like the Under 9.5 rebounds at -125 because Towns will likely be on the perimeter a lot, which will bring Embiid away from the basket, potentially causing him to miss out on some defensive rebound opportunities. I will take the Under 4.5 assists at -125 as well. I think Towns will be able to defend him straight up, limiting the number of double teams.
I’ll take the Over 1.5 three-pointers at +130, though. In the playoff series against the Knicks last season, Embiid attempted eight, nine, seven, six, four and five, draining at least two in four of those games. Granted, he played close to 40 minutes in those contests, but I can see Embiid lumbering a bit and getting a few more “late-in-transition” three-pointers.
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