Week 10 of the NFL season will be concluded with a matchup between the Los Angeles Rams and Miami Dolphins. This is a crucial matchup for both teams as they have not gotten off to the start of the season they desired and a win could go a long way to keeping their playoff hopes alive.
The Rams enter as 2.5-point favorites and -148 favorites on the moneyline. The Dolphins are +124 underdogs on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook while the game total is set at 48.5 points.
There are far more ways to get involved in the action than just traditional betting. One of the more unique features on DraftKings this year is Pick6 Fantasy Football!
Rams vs. Dolphins Pick6 Plays
The Los Angeles Rams enter this game with a 4-4 record but have won their last three games. They have battled injuries with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua both missing some time and the offensive line still having some notable losses. Overall they rank 18th in scoring, 17th in yards gained, 22nd in points allowed and 25th in yards given up.
The Miami Dolphins have also battled the injury bug with Tua Tagovailoa’s Week 2 concussion sending the team into a spiral. Uncharacteristically, they rank dead last in scoring and have been held to 12 points or fewer in five games, four of which were without Tagovailoa. They have a record of just 2-6 and now hold +500 odds of qualifying for the playoffs. This is a must-win if Miami is to have any chance of making the playoffs but the team may even settle for returning to its expected offensive output.
With the stage set, here are my top Pick6 choices for the Week 10 Monday night matchup.
De’Von Achane More Than 0.5 Rushing & Receiving Touchdowns
The Miami Dolphins have tallied just 12 total offensive touchdowns this season, and Achane has been responsible for five of them. Miami split carries between Achane and Raheem Mostert last season but, while Mostert will still be in the mix, Achane seems to have grabbed the lead running back role.
So far this season, Achane has run the ball 93 times for 420 yards and two rushing touchdowns. He has also added 302 receiving yards and three touchdowns through the air. The Rams’ defense ranks 22nd in points allowed and presents Miami with its best chance at returning to its typical offensive production.
Expect the Dolphins to look closer to the offensive juggernaut they flashed to be the past two seasons in this matchup. The combination of Miami’s return to health and the struggling Rams defense presents this opportunity. Achane will be near the front of the line for touchdown opportunities in the red zone and he has carried the ball 14 times in the red zone compared to the nine that Mostert has received. Look for him to find paydirt for the sixth time this season tonight against the Rams.
Kyren Williams More Than 85.5 Rushing Yards
Kyren Williams has quietly emerged as one of the best running backs in the NFL this season. He is tied for fourth in the NFL in carries and has produced 602 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns this season. Williams has also scored a touchdown in six consecutive games.
Miami does not possess a fearful defense as it currently ranks 19th in points allowed. Miami has allowed 100 or more rushing yards against it in seven of its nine games so far this season. Williams has emerged as the clearcut bellcow running back and has tallied 21 or more carries in each of the past four weeks.
On the season overall, Williams is averaging 75.3 rushing yards per game, which is a slight step back from the 95.3 per game he averaged last season. Even still, he has recorded more than 85.5 rushing yards in four of the eight games. Expect his usual number of carries to continue and for Williams to convert this to more than 85.5 rushing yards under the bright primetime lights. Miami’s rush defense has been better than its passing defense, so expect the Rams to attack this area.
Colby Parkinson Less Than 16.5 Receiving Yards
Colby Parkinson has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of the injuries to the Rams’ star pass catchers. The fifth-year tight end has tallied 23 catches for 214 yards this season and is averaging 26.8 receiving yards per game. However, he has taken a step back in the offense since the more talented pass catchers have returned to the field.
Most recently, Parkinson was not even targeted against the Seahawks. He has not been known for his pass-catching ability throughout his career and is on pace for a career-best season. He is just two catches and 108 yards shy of his previous career highs entering Week 10.
Expect this to be a trend moving forward and for Parkinson to begin to be a forgotten man in the offense. Los Angeles will be much more comfortable relying on Cooper Kupp and the other talented pass catchers. Don’t expect to hear Parkinson’s name on the broadcast much tonight and count on him to tally less than 16.5 receiving yards.
Tua Tagovailoa More Than 246.5 Passing Yards
It is a bit surprising how much of a lull the Dolphins’ offense hit in the absence of Tua Tagovailoa. Their dead-last scoring production is concerning and the team hopes they can return to their high-flying selves with their quarterback back in place.
So far this season, Tagovailoa is averaging just 237.0 passing yards per game. This is well below the 272.4 yards per game he averaged across the past two seasons. The Alabama product has only thrown for more than 246.5 passing yards once this season, but this is a great chance to get back on track tonight.
The Rams rank 22nd in points allowed and 25th in yards given up. They also rank 24th in passing yards given up and 28th in passing touchdowns allowed. Tagovailoa has thrown for more than 246.5 passing yards in 10 of the 17 games last season and the offense showed signs of life last week, putting up 27 points. Look for the Dolphins to return to their high-powered offensive output and for Tagovailoa to be at the heart of it. Count on him to record more than 246.5 passing yards and do everything possible to keep Miami’s playoff hopes alive.
Jonnu Smith More Than 36.5 Receiving Yards
While the Dolphins’ offense has been fairly disastrous in recent weeks, Jonnu Smith has been a bright spot. On the season as a whole, Smith has tallied 30 receptions for 302 yards and a touchdown. He has been especially strong in recent weeks, recording at least four catches in each of the past four weeks and being targeted at least six times in each. He has tallied more than 36.5 receiving yards in three of those four weeks.
Tyreek Hill is officially listed as questionable for the game and seems to be a true game-time decision. If Hill is set to miss the game, this will create more of a need for Smith in the offense. This is especially evident after Hill’s 130-receiving yard performance last week. Even still, there is room for Smith to produce with or without Hill.
The Rams have allowed four different tight ends to record more than 36.5 receiving yards already this season. They have struggled to generate just about any source of stable defense, and Miami has underperformed greatly offensively. Expect Smith to continue remaining involved in the offense and receive enough targets to record more than 36.5 yards in primetime.
Puka Nacua Less Than 68.5 Receiving Yards
Puka Nacua burst onto the scene last season, recording 105 receptions for 1,486 receiving yards and six touchdowns. He earned Pro Bowl honors and finished second in Offensive Rookie of the Year voting. While Nacua deserves all the credit for this production, it feels the crown of WR1 on the Rams was passed from Cooper Kupp to Nacua a bit prematurely.
Both Kupp and Nacua have battled injury issues this season but will be on the field for this matchup. Nacua has played in just three games this season and recorded yardage outputs of 11, 106 and 35. The 11-yard receiving performance occurred last week, with Nacua logging just 35% of offensive snaps.
Expect Nacua to continue shaking off the rust and to take some time before he returns to last season’s form. The Dolphins have also quietly produced a competent pass defense that has limited opponents to the sixth-fewest passing yards per game. The 68.5-receiving yard total seems a bit high based on what we have seen from Nacua on the field this season. Expect him to remain less than that in tonight’s game and for better performances to be ahead.
What is DraftKings Pick6?
Pick6 is a peer-to-peer fantasy variant where you build a lineup (your “Pick Set”) of at least two players and select whether you believe each will outperform their listed stat projection. Enter your Pick Set in Pick6 contests to compete against other users. Get enough picks correct and win a share of cash prizes.
How to Play DraftKings Pick6
Create a Pick Set
Create a Pick Set by choosing 2+ players from the same sport and Pick Group (a set of picks available from a group of set competitions). For each player, simply select if you think they’ll have more or less than their listed stat projection. In each Pick Set, you cannot pick the same player twice and you must select players from at least two different teams.
Enter an Amount
Once you finalize your Pick Set, choose your entry fee amount. Your entries will be automatically distributed into available contests, subject to your confirmation.
Sweat Your Picks
When the games go live, use the My Picks tab to follow your picks in real time to track how your players are performing against their projections and how they stack up against other users.
Compete for Prizes
Make enough correct picks and win a share of the contests’ guaranteed prizes. Any prizes won will be credited to your DraftKings account after contests are finalized.
Play at DraftKings Pick6 or by downloading the DraftKings Pick6 app on Apple or Google!
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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