The Cheat Sheet provides DraftKings fantasy golf players with course info, player history and the most noteworthy trends of the week to help them with their roster selections.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $150K Sand Trap [$50K to 1st]
The Field
This year will mark the sixth running of the Butterfield Bermuda Championship. The field for this fall series event features 130-135 players and has seen a few names withdraw over the last few days (Joe Highsmith and Taylor Montgomery). With poor weather on tap for this season, it is possible more WD’s could be coming. The highest-ranked players in the field are Canadians Nick Taylor (61) and Mackenzie Hughes (64) who is also the market leader in betting at +1600 on the DraftKings Sportsbook. He’s joined by co-favorite Seamus Power at those odds.
Three of the last five winners of this event — Brendon Todd, Camilo Villegas, and Brian Gay — all went off at 100-1 or greater in the betting odds, so long-shot winners have been the theme here. 2021 winner Lucas Herbert also went off around 66-1. The event features a regular cutline after Friday, where only the top 65 players and ties will advance to the weekend.
The Course
Port Royal GC—Southampton, Bermuda
Par 71, 6,828 yards
This is the sixth year in a row that this event will be played at Port Royal GC, a shorter Robert Trent Jones-designed course. At one time, the venue did host the now defunct “Grand Slam of Golf” and underwent massive renovations just to be able to properly host this event prior to its inaugural running in 2019. The Oceanside course is the longest on the admittedly tiny island but still only stretches out to just over 6,800 yards, making it extremely short by PGA TOUR standards.
The venue fits alongside many of the other seaside venues that we see on the PGA TOUR, as it has at least six holes that stretch out and run alongside the ocean. While pure length isn’t necessarily a big bonus here, wind control will be. Three par 5s inhabit the course this week and will all be reachable in two by nearly the entire field. These holes, as a group, played as the three easiest on the course the first three years, and they will be near must birdies on a week where low scoring will likely prevail.
With short par 5s and an open course where wind can wreak havoc, you can start to see why shorter hitters like Brendon Todd (win) and Brian Gay (T3; win) have been able to dominate when their short games and putters get hot. Most holes at Port Royal will allow all modern-day PGA TOUR pros to have short approaches if they hit a decent drive, so position and short-iron play weigh far more here than distance—especially with many holes skirting the water where even a small error off the tee can court disaster.
In many ways, just knowing how to manage your way around a short course like this will be a huge advantage, and that’s the strength of many veteran PGA TOUR players.
Brian Gay was an unlikely winner at Port Royal in 2020 and averaged just 287 yards off the tee in the win, but he ranked 10th in Putts per GIR and 17th in GIR percentage. In 2021, Lucas Herbert ranked seventh in driving distance but was also fourth in scrambling. 2022 winner Seamus Power was also 9th in GIR% and 3rd in putts per GIR. Solid putting or around the green play, with some decent ball-striking mixed in, has been the key at Port Royal. It’s also worth noting that Gay and 2019 winner Brendon Todd has done the best work of their career at other shorter venues like Waialae (Sony Open), Hilton Head (RBC Heritage), and El Camaleon (former host of the Mayakoba Classic in December).
Those leaderboards (and courses) are all likely great comparisons for this week’s test.
2024 Weather Outlook: The wind is always a factor when you play on a small, unprotected island like Bermuda. After this event saw some easier conditions and low scores in 2023 it looks like the pendulum may shift back to tougher conditions (and higher scores) in 2024. Temperatures are set to be in the mid 60’s to low 70’s most of the week with winds starting off at 20-25mph on Thursday. Things get a little calmer on the next two days but Sunday again has winds gusting over 20mph. Big splits in scoring can occur in these scenarios but as of now, it does look like Thursday is set to be extremely gusty the whole day. Friday morning may be the wave to target as the winds are set to die down in the am, and then gradually rise throughout the day. Expect a ton of volatility this week either way and for players to have their short games tested.
Last 5 Winners and Winning Trends
2023-Camilo Villegas -24 (over Alex Noren -22)
2022—Seamus Power -19 (over Thomas Detry -18)
2021—Lucas Herbert -15 (over Patrick Reed, Danny Lee -14)
2020—Brian Gay -15 (over Wyndham Clark playoff)
2019—Brendon Todd -24 (over Harry Higgs -20)
- When Todd won in 2019, he was making his sixth start of the swing season already, and it’s worth noting that five of the top-6 finishers from 2019 had all played in four or more fall series events prior to that event.
- Both Todd and Gay ranked inside the top 10 in Driving Accuracy and GIR% for the week. Neither cracked the top 40 in terms of driving distance.
- Good short-iron play, good around-the-green play, and putting are what matters here the most, so emphasizing a player’s long-term and short-term around-the-green and putting form may reveal a couple of diamonds in the rough this week.
- In 2021, Herbert was seventh in driving distance but still only averaged around 285 yards off the tee. It’s not a course where players will get to hit drivers often.
- Power won in 2022 with some solid iron play (top 10 in GIR%) but mainly a hot putter, where he ranked third in Putts per GIR.
- In 2023, Villegas was coming in off a T2 finish in Mexico. He ranked just 74th in driving distance but was first in GIR% and also T16 in Scrambling (and 11th in Putts per GIR).
Finding Values (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Odds to win are one factor to think about when picking players (but not the only thing, so be careful putting too much weight on them). This section is going to detail a few of the players who have the best fantasy value comparative to their DraftKings Sportsbook odds of winning this week.
Andrew Novak +2800 and $8,800
Comparables:
Carson Young +4000 and $7,800
Comparables:
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Recent Form
1. Nicolas Echavarria ($10,000, Recent finishes: T6-win): After winning at the Zozo in Japan two starts ago, Echavarria was again in competition for the win last week, ultimately finishing in T6. He shot a second-round 63 in Mexico but finished poorly with a final-round 71. He is playing great golf and finished T23 at this week’s event in 2022.
2. Sam Stevens ($9,100, Recent finishes: T6-T22): Stevens took a step up last week in Mexico, after a couple of top 25 finishes, and landed a T6. It was his best finish on the PGA TOUR since April of 2023 and marked his fifth made cut in a row. He did miss the cut at this event in 2022 but is finding some form as we head towards the end of the year.
3. Ben Griffin ($9,300, Recent finishes: T24-T22): Griffin continues to play consistent golf, week-in, week-out. He’s made the cut in four of his last five PGA starts and has been gaining around the green all week. If the conditions are windy, Griffin’s ability to avoid bogies and higher scores makes him more valuable for fantasy purposes.
4. Carson Young ($7,700, Recent finishes: T2-T37): Young gave it a good go last week in Mexico, landing a T2 finish. He shot a 61 in Round 2 and ended the week with a 65. Young’s been gaining on approach rather consistently but missed the cut at this event in 2022.
5. David Lipsky ($7,700, Recent finishes: T6-T41): Lispky posted his second Top-8 finish of the fall last week, with a T6 in Mexico. He shot three rounds of 66 or better at that event and has really improved his short game, which has allowed him to produce more consistent top finishes.
DRAFTKINGS DFS STRATEGY
Cash Games: Griffin solid for any conditions
I’m not sure I want to bet Ben Griffin ($9,700) to win outright, as he always falls short on Sunday, but as a cash game play for DFS purposes, he does feel somewhat safe this week. Griffin has landed two top-25 finishes in a row, is 6th in strokes gained around the green stats over the last 24 rounds and is solid in bogey avoidance (26th) over the same time frame. He finished 3rd at this course in 2022 and has the perfect style of game for a short course, with smaller greens. Below Griffin, the prices of both Alex Smalley ($7,900) and Rico Hoey ($7,900) look solid as well. Smalley ranks 18th in bogey avoidance while Hoey ranks fifth and hasn’t missed since the US Open in June, a cut streak that now stands at 11 starts.
Tournaments: Lipsky and Norlander solid veterans
David Lipsky ($7,300) already has a couple of top 10 finishes on the fall swing, including a T2 at the Procore Championship form September. He’s not the most consistent player but his short game has taken a real uptick over this last spell and it’s led to some good results. With really poor weather this could be a great spot for him to grab his first win, or just post another solid week in general. The same idea applies to Henrik Norlander ($7,600) who has a couple of top eight finishes this fall and comes in ranked 13th in SG: ATG and 12th in SG: APP stats over the last 24 rounds. The Swede is likely better off with scoring a little tougher thanks to his elite scrambling and he has done well at coastal-style courses, such as Sea Island, in the past. Other names to consider further down include Kelly Kraft ($6,900), Brandt Snedeker (see below) and Ben Taylor ($6,300).
MY PICK: Andrew Putnam ($9,000)
Putnam is the type of player I expect may thrive with the windier conditions on tap for 2024. Entering the week, he’s 3rd in strokes gained around the green stats over the 24 rounds, 28th in approach, and 20th in bogey avoidance, stellar for an event that will likely require lots of scrambling and precision iron play to put together solid rounds. From a larger picture perspective, the veteran has often excelled at off-mainland venues like Waialae CC in Hawai (T2 – 2019, T4 – 2023), Corales in Punta Cana (T5 – 2018), and Coco Beach in Puerto Rico (T5 -2021), where wind control and short iron play reign supreme.
The American has gained strokes around the green in 10 straight starts on the PGA TOUR and enters off a week of rest having not traveled to Mexico last week, which should give him a theoretical advantage over the field. The 35-year-old hasn’t been dormant this fall, however, having played in three events already, including a T16 finish at the Shriners, where he gained 2.7 strokes on approach and 4.1 strokes on the greens.
He finished T21 at this venue back in 2020 (his only appearance) but was coming in with far worse form that season, so that’s a number I expect he’ll have a great shot at improving on this year. For DFS, he makes sense as a core player to build around, and for betting, he’s a someone I would have no issue betting outright at +3000 on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
MY SLEEPER: Brandt Snedeker ($6,700)
Snedeker is about as speculative a play as it gets but you do have to love the setup for him this week. At 43 he’s very disadvantaged off the tee but the short course, and short rough, equalizes the field somewhat by putting a major emphasis on short game, approaches, and putting. Add in the heavy winds expected this week and you have an event where a calm, patient approach will be needed, plus experience playing in these types of conditions.
Enter my man Brandt Snedeker who is a coastal expert, having won multiple times at Pebble Beach and Torrey Pines. It’s been a while since he’s done anything of note on the PGA but he enters this week off of two made cuts in the fall series, a T26 at the Procore and a T16 at the Sanderson Farms, where he gained 2.5 and 2.3 strokes on approach. Despite the dip in form and world ranking, Snedeker’s short game and putting have remained top notch and he enters this week 18th in ATG play over the last 24 rounds and has gained 5.0 strokes putting in each of his last two starts.
A terrific spike putter who has seen it all at this point, he won’t be intimidated by these rough conditions or quirky course, making him a name to consider for big GPPs, where he’ll likely be well under 5% owned. For betting, just given the trend we’ve seen of long-shot, veteran winners (Villegas, Todd, Gay) at this event I’d have no problem with a small outright wager on him at +17000, and would also look to him as a potential top 10 (+1100) target on the DraftKings Sportsbook as well.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $150K Sand Trap [$50K to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
