Monday Night Football features two teams loaded with offensive stars. Will the Los Angeles Rams and Miami Dolphins have a shootout in Los Angeles? Or will this game be decided in the trenches? Check out the Week 10 primetime football best bets, predictions and analysis for DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Los Angeles Rams -2.5 (-120)
The Rams are healthy and winning. The Dolphins are getting healthy and aren’t. Despite a three-game win streak and a home game, the Rams are small favorites. It’s surprising how little respect the Rams are getting. Every season, they stumble out of the gates but regroup by December. Their late-season surge is upon us again. Meanwhile, the Dolphins’ annual slide is in full swing.
The Rams check too many boxes to be a slight favorite in their Monday Night Football matchup with the Dolphins. They have an elite quarterback and running back. Their star receivers are healthy. And their offensive line is getting healthier and gelling. Early in the season, the Rams’ line struggled. The absence of receivers didn’t help the passing game stats. Since the return of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, the offensive lines’ advanced metrics have looked much better.
The Rams’ line allowed nearly a 30% QB Pressure Rate in their 1-4 starts to the season. Their QB Pressure Rates have dropped to 18.2%, 8.8% and 21.4% on their three-game win streak. Matthew Stafford has thrown six touchdowns and for almost 600 yards in the last two games. The Dolphins’ defense rates out well overall but it hasn’t translated on the scoreboard. They’ve allowed 28 points or more in the last two games and have surrendered 24 points or more in five of their six losses. Jalen Ramsey is still an elite cornerback, but he can’t guard every player on the field. He needs help and the Dolphins pass rush isn’t doing their part. Their edge rushers have the fewest sacks in the NFL. The Rams’ offense is in a great spot and will be too much to handle for four quarters in Los Angeles.
Rams vs. Dolphins Under 49 (-112)
This is an unpopular take, but this game is going under. The offenses are loaded with stars. It appears to be a fantastic fantasy football matchup. That’s fantasy. This is reality. Football games are won in the trenches. They’re won by teams. The players without the flame emojis next to their names decide games. It’s the players who appear at the bottom of the box score, if they appear at all, who decide wins and losses.
The Rams’ pass rush is for real. It might lack household names but it’s wrecking their opponents’ households. Not one player stands out, but their collective effort is extremely disruptive. It starts on first and second down. They don’t miss tackles and limit yards after contact. This forces teams into third-and-long. They’ve allowed the fewest yards on third-and-long. Their 29.1% QB Pressure Rate is the second-best in the NFL and their 12.1% Hurry Rate is the high watermark in the league. One sack kills a drive. A hurry on third down stalls a drive. The Rams will score, but Miami will come up short. Field goals and punts won’t get the score north of 30.
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