The Week 10 Sunday Night Matchup between the Houston Texans and Detroit Lions has plenty of hype. Both these teams have deep playoff aspirations and enter with a combined record of 13-4.
There is a case to be made that Detroit has looked like the best team in the NFL thus far. They enter with a 7-1 record, lead the NFL in points scored, and have allowed the fifth-fewest points per game. Their offense has been impressive and they have tallied 42+ points in three separate games already this year.
Houston has not had as smooth of a start to the season but still enters with a 6-3 record. Most recently, they suffered a frustrating 21-13 loss to the New York Jets. This matchup occurred last week on Thursday Night Football so they will have the rest advantage here. Overall, the Texans rank 17th in scoring and 14th in points allowed.
The Lions enter this game as 3.5-point favorites in the matchup. The Texans are +160 underdogs on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook and the game total is set at 49.5 points. With the stage set, here are my favorite prop bets for the Sunday Night clash.
Jared Goff Over 232.5 Passing Yards (-115)
While the Detroit Lions’ success as a team has been evident, it has been an uncharacteristic statistical stretch for Jared Goff. The former number-one overall pick was held to just 145 passing yards last week and only 82 the week before in the 52-14 victory over the Titans. These have marked his two lowest passing totals on the season.
Looking from a wider view, Goff has averaged 230.0 passing yards per game and leads the NFL in completion percentage at 74.9%. This is a great opportunity to get back on track as Houston’s defense has not been impressive this year. Overall they rank 14th in points allowed and have given up the third-most passing touchdowns across the league.
Despite their overall offensive success, the Lions rank 30th in passing attempts and 29th in passing yards. Expect Goff to return to the form he showed at the start of the season when he threw for over 232.5 yards in four of the first six weeks. The Texans’ defense will not be bothersome enough and Goff is due for some positive regression. Expect him to return to form and for Goff to air it out plenty en route to over 232.5 passing yards.
Amon-Ra St. Brown Anytime TD (-105)
September 15th marks the last time Amon-Ra played an NFL game without scoring a touchdown. The star pass-catcher has found paydirt in six consecutive games and is tied for the second-most receiving touchdowns across the NFL.
The Texans rank 30th in passing touchdowns allowed on the season while the Lions have thrown for the third-most passing touchdowns. Houston has averaged 2.1 passing touchdowns allowed per game and St. Brown will be the top option to fill this production for Detroit. The Texans are also allowing an NFL-worst 15.3% touchdown rate to slot receivers this year and St. Brown will see some opportunities in the slot.
Getting -105 odds for a player who has scored a touchdown in each of the past six weeks is great value. Until St. Brown shows reason to believe he cannot keep this streak going, continue to jump on these odds. This is especially the case when factoring in the strengths and weaknesses of both teams.
Nico Collins Anytime TD (+130)
The Houston Texans entered the season with one of the most dynamic wide receiver groups in the NFL. Unfortunately, they have needed each one of their star pass-catchers to step up. Stefon Diggs is out for the season due to a torn ACL. Tank Dell has missed one game due to injury and Nico Collins is making his return from a four-game absence due to a hamstring injury.
There has been no doubt about the talent level or production of Collins when he has been on the field. Across the first five games he played, Collins tallied 32 receptions for 567 yards and three touchdowns. He continues to lead the league in yards per game with an average of 113.4 yards per game. He caught touchdowns in three of the five games he has played in thus far.
Heading into this matchup, expect Houston to need to air the ball out plenty. There is not much optimism in Houston’s defense being able to fully contain Detroit’s dynamic offense. If they want to have a chance it will involve Houston putting plenty of points up themselves. Expect Collins to be at the heart of their game plan and for the 25-year-old to showcase why he is one of the most talented wide receivers once again. Capitalize on the +130 odds ahead of this game.
C.J. Stroud 100+ Passing Yards in Each Half (+200)
So far this season C.J. Stroud is averaging 237.7 passing yards per game. This comes following last season in which he led the entire NFL with 273.9 passing yards per game. Detroit ranks 21st in yards allowed and 29th in passing yards given up this season.
While Stroud needing to reach this total in both halves creates more risk, the +200 payout is appealing and the opportunity should be there. Stroud has thrown for as many as 345 passing yards in a game already this season and will undoubtedly be at the epicenter of the Houston game plan.
Expect the Texans to air it out early and often. This is their most effective method of offensive attack and getting +200 odds for Stroud to throw for 100 yards in each half is great value. Buckle up for some offensive and expect Stroud to hold up his end of the bargain.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
