Tonight’s Sunday Night Football tilt between the Detroit Lions and the Houston Texans has everyone excited. The Texans have been underperforming and bludgeoned by injuries on offense. Offensive line is a problem. But Nico Collins and Tank Dell are both active for C.J. Stroud tonight, so America’s fire is absolutely stoked. A fully healthy Texans offense against this powerhouse Lions team led by Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Amon-Ra St. Brown should be, on paper, electric.
I’ve been tracking Gibbs’s prop market on DraftKings Sportsbook all season, and actually have before backed the prop I like best for tonight.
Let’s get Gibby with it.
Jahmyr Gibbs prop bets on DraftKings SportsBook for NFL Week 10 Sunday Night Football
Jahmyr Gibbs 2+ Touchdowns (+400)
Last I advocated for this pick (Monday Night Football against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 5), Gibbs only had two touchdowns on the year—one on the ground, one through the air. At that point, his price as an Anytime TD Scorer was -115 on DraftKings SportsBook, and not worth a straight bet.
Since then, and including the Seattle game, Gibbs has scored six touchdowns—all on the ground. But, make no mistake: he hasn’t been inactive in the passing game. He’s just been so explosive in the running game that he’s scored touchdowns on his carries before the Lions have needed to follow a game script in which Gibbs would see a ton of targets.
Check out this stat from NFL Next Gen Stats insights:
This is, quite simply, an advanced metrics endorsement of MVP-caliber play from the running back position. In analytics parlance, what this means is that Gibbs has been impossible to bet against.
Still, as you can see from the below screenshot from his market on DK, he’s now -145 to score a single touchdown. Which is curious, given David Montgomery’s role as the goal line back.
I’d rather spend the unit on a +400 2+ TD bet. Gibbs has cleared two touchdowns in two games so far. And, while the Lions do like to spread the ball out to their bloated clubhouse of unbelievably-talented skill-makers, I’m going to bet on Gibbs to score two touchdowns against this Texans offense.
As of this morning, the Texans shifted a few players on their offensive line around to hopefully protect C.J. Stroud at a more efficient rate. The Lions added Za’Darius Smith on the edge, but I’m choosing to believe in a frisky matchup between two offenses that perform at their highest levels. The offensive line switch was the trick.
Gibbs hits paydirt twice tonight and make Cris Collinsworth guffaw.
Jahmyr Gibbs best bet: 2+ Touchdowns (+400)
Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is thegreatdansby9) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
