Unabated is an industry leader in real-time betting data and profitable sports betting tools. For the NBA season, they created the industry’s first-ever Conditional Projections. Every day, the Unabated NBA team creates projection sets for different scenarios based upon which key players are Questionable on the injury report with massive potential ramifications on the slate.
If you’ve played an NBA slate as a DFS player or prop bettor, you know how it is with the NBA: Injuries are everything. A minute here or there can be the difference between good chalk and bad chalk, quality value or lineup-ruining value, or an over/under winning or losing by the hook.
Every day we have dozens of players marked as Questionable up until game time with their statuses often impacting the edges or microedges you can have. A couple of times each week here on DraftKings Network, I’ll bring you the latest news and information on a few of the players who seem most noteworthy in Unabated’s Conditional Projections.
The Unabated NBA team, led by industry veteran Justin Phan, currently projects Nuggets star Jamal Murray to have a 50% chance of playing tonight at home versus the Heat. Murray has been sidelined with a concussion and is currently Questionable as he works his way through the NBA’s concussion protocol.
Murray has been a disaster to start the year with a low 21.1% usage rate and an 18.2% assist rate along with a paltry 0.85 DraftKings points per minute. With the Nuggets also losing Aaron Gordon, Murray stands to see increases back to at least his historically higher 27.6% usage and 27.5% rebound rate — along with 1.2 DKPPM for the sample size going back to last year.
If Murray were to play today, Unabated NBA projects him for 18.3 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 5 assists.
If Murray sits today, here are the expected median outcomes for some of his key Nuggets teammates:
- Nikola Jokic: 27.3 points, 12.9 rebounds, and 9.7 assists (26.2 points, 13.4 rebounds, and 9 assists if Murray is in)
- Michael Porter, Jr.: 18.4 points, 7.2 rebounds, 2.3 assists (17.7 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 2.2 assists if Murray is in)
- Christian Braun: 13.2 points, 5.1 rebounds, 1.5 assists (11.7 points, 5.3 rebounds, 2.1 assists if Murray is in)
Jamal Murray and the Nuggets are the last game on the 11/8 DraftKings main slate so Murray’s playing status could take a while to be confirmed. Prepare accordingly!
See all of the Conditional Projections for tonight’s slate along with live news updates and premium content on Unabated NBA. Start now with promo code SPLASH to get $30 off as a special thank you to DraftKings Network readers.
