GPPs are not won by using all of the most popular players on the slate. Being a contrarian in a big-field event can help separate your lineup, and gain you leverage over the field when some of the more popular names bust. The goal of this article won’t be to highlight the popular “play-it-safe” names that your Dad talks about at family dinner.
No. Us? We’re looking for some diamonds in the rough. Guys that no one talks about — not even their own coaches.
OK, we’re not going that deep, but you get the idea — lower ownership and high upside. We’re looking for players who we feel good about but still make us feel alive inside. That’s the goal.
Let’s dive into Week 10.
Be sure to set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: $2.75M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st]
Top DFS Stack
Game Stack: Bills @ Colts
Josh Allen ($6,900) – Jonathan Taylor ($8,600) – Dalton Kincaid ($5,900) – Khalil Shakir ($6,000)
The Bills take on a Colts team that should want to run the ball with Jonathan Taylor this week. Joe Flacco was ineffective against the Vikings in their last start, and will face another tough pass defense in Buffalo who is only allowing 6.2 yards per attempt this year (8th best in the league). The good news for the Colts is that the Bills are nowhere near as potent against the run. They’re just 26th in yards per carry against and got gashed last week by the Dolphins, ceding 137 yards to their RB group. Overall, Buffalo has allowed seven TDs to opposing RBs over their last six games and faces one of the league’s premier rushers in Taylor, who only saw 13 carries last week (and is coming in off a long week of rest as the Colts played on TNF last week).
I expect Taylor to get all the work he can handle in this spot and eventually bust through for multiple big plays, and likely a score.
If the Colts do get good production from Taylor, it should only push Josh Allen into a quicker tempo on offense, and more dropbacks, against a Colts secondary that is ineffective at stoping the pass. Indianapolis ranks 30th in success rate per dropback this season and is allowing an obscene 70.1% completion rate (4th worst in the league) to opposing QBs. Allen may have less weapons to throw to in this spot with Keon Coleman out and Amari Cooper ($5,800) still highly questionable, and likely not 100%.
I don’t necessarily see Allen’s upside being limited, however, mainly due to how weak the Colts can be in coverage, especially in the middle of the field. Indianapolis has allowed 7.4 targets to opposing TEs per game and 6.3 receptions (an 85% completion rate overall), and have allowed multiple mid-tier TEs like Jonnu Smith (seven catches, seven targets, 96 yards and a TD) and Cole Kmet (ten catches, 97 yards and a TD on 11 targets) to land monster days against them. Dalton Kincaid, who saw 10 targets last week, should be heavily targeted this week and remains one of my favorite fantasy plays of the season at TE this week.
Just given how explosive the Colts can be on offense, especially Taylor, I do think double-stacking Allen has viability in this spot as well. While Cooper (if he plays) would make for an interesting contrarian play, Khalil Shakir has been stellar with Allen this season. He leads the league in YAC, despite only catching 42 passes, and has been wildly efficient, converting 45 of his 42 targets into catches.
The targets this week should be condensed for Buffalo and with a weaker pass defense to attack, there is room both Shakir and Kincaid to pay off, in a game that has high scoring potential.
Quarterback
Aaron Rodgers ($5,700)
The Jets take on the Cardinals this week, who rank dead last in success rate vst the pass. While they were able to keep the Bears from scoring via the pass last week, the Jets have a more potent pass game, especially now that Aaron Rdgers has two elite WRs at his disposal. For the season, Rodgers has been a great target when priced this cheap as he’s now produced returns of three-times or more, in three of his last four starts.
Part of what makes Rodgers attractive is the fact the Jets defense isn’t playing near the elite levels it has the past couple of seasons, and is likely to get run on again by a Cardinals team that is 12th in success rate per rush. If that happens, it should push Rodgers into more dropbacks and potentially produce a big game from him as he relies more on his receivers (as opposed to his RBs) this week to keep up with with a Cardinals team who has averaged 28.0 points over their last two starts.
Running Back
Higher End: Aaron Jones ($6,700)
The Jaguars are a mess and may be starting Mac Jones in Week 10, which is likely to lead to some short fields for Minnesota and a big day for Aaron Jones. Jones only has three TDs this season but his usage has been fantastic. He’s averaged 20 carries over his last two starts and has taken 80% of the team’s I5 (in the 5) carries this year. He’s also a factor in the receiving game and faces off a Jaguars defense that has allowed the second-most receptions to opposing RBs and four TDs to RBs through the air.
Overall, Jacksonville’s defense has cratered as the season has worn on and they come into this week having allowed 12 TDs to opposing RBs, a total the Vikings seem likely to add to this week. With Minnesota coming off a long week of rest and needing to keep up with Detroit in the division, betting on a big workload and a big game for Jones makes all too much sense this week.
Lower End: D’Andre Swift ($6,500)
I’ll be honest, there just aren’t many viable punt plays at RB for Week 10. Even the pass catching backs under $5,000 have small roles and may need in game injuries to really post the kind of return you need to win a GPP. With paying up the better option this week, looking to double-dip in the 6k range with Swift makes plenty of sense. The Patriots run defense has cratered after a fast start and now ranks just 22nd in EPA per rush and is allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing RBs.
Swift has bene the weekly constant in this Bears offense, which has been maddeningly inconsistent all season. He’s dominating the goal line work, has caught four or more passes in three of his last four games, and been even better at home, where he’s averaged 71.8 yards rushing. No need to get cute or fancy, just target the Bears best rusher against a very weak rush defense that lacks talent and the ability to shut down the opposing teams best RB.
Wide Receiver
Higher End: Ladd McConkey ($5,900)
The Chargers are slowly morphing into a pass first team. They’ve thrown the ball on 59% of their offensive snaps the last three weeks, which is the ninth-highest rate in the NFL, and much higher than their current 51% seasonal rate. That’s helped the upside of Ladd McConkey who enters this week just two weeks removed from a 32.1 DKFP outing, where he scored twice against the Saints.
McConkey has now posted a team target share of 25% or more in five of his eight starts to date and will face a Titans secondary that haven’t been all that stellar against top tier opponents. With their top corner in L’Jarious Sneed hurting (questionable) and having a down year, this is a great spot for McConkey to show out again. He’s attached to an elite QB in Justin Herbert ($5,200) and is now working in a more pass-first system, making his sub-6k salary look like a good bit of value to target for Week 10.
Lower End: Ray-Ray McLeod ($4,300)
The Falcons have a great matchup with the Saints this week, who just traded away their best corner and still have injuries to other key players, including CB Kool-Aid McKinstry. This is a great spot for the Falcons pass-catchers in general, and looks like a potential Goldilocks scenario for McLeod who is healthy and could be in line for more targeting with Drake London (hip) and Kyle Pitts (hamstring) tending to injury.
It’s too early to know if either of those two receivers will be playing, but even if they see their snaps or routes reduced this week, McLeod figures to get a bump, against a defense that has allowed the sixth-most yards and eighth-most receptions to opposing WRs this season. Watch the injury report closely, as McLeod’s upside, which is already quite good in this spot, may only get better if either London or Pitts can’t go.
Tight End
Juwan Johnson ($3,300)
Johnson is a 6’4, 230lb TE, who ran a 4.58 sec 40M out of college and profiles more like a WR (despite him playing TE his entire NFL career). With all of the injuries suffered by Saints WRs this year (Bub Means-IR, Chris Olave-Doubtful, Rashid Shaheed-IR) I expect Johnson (regardless of his stats as a TE) to get decent downfield targeting this week and potentially even lead the Saints in total receiving yards. Even though he rarely gets talked about in this offense, Johnson has already produced some decent games this season. He’s gone for 40+ yards in three of his last four games, and has averaged over 17.0 yards per reception over his last two starts.
When you add in the fact the Falcons have a poor cover unit, that is dead last in completion rate, and have allowed an incredible 19 catches and two TDs to opposing TE the last two weeks, we could be looking at a special kind of output game from Johnson. At just $3,300, this is the kind of upside you love to see when searching for cheap TEs, making him a player to fully get behind using as a cheap option in Week 10.
Defense/Special Teams
Tennessee Titans D/ST ($2,700)
There aren’t a ton of cheap D/ST’s that stick out to me this week (and certainly this is a week where paying up might be preferred at this position). However, the Titans do stick out to me as an option. The Chargers run game has been slowly regressing and they come into this week now averaging just 4.0 yards per attempt, which is 24th in the league.
Tennessee can stop the run (they’re 13th in ypc against) and do get decent pressure, having landed 3.0 sacks per game over their last three starts. I don’t normally like to bet against Justin Herbert but those is a spot where the Titans could force him into a lot of 3rd and long situations and be able to tee off, and create some much needed chaos on defense. They’ve managed 4.0 sacks in each of their last two games and also came up with three turnovers, in a season high 11.0 DKPF effort against the Patriots last week.
With the Chargers offense quite one dimensional right now, it’s possible we get a second decent game in a row from the cheaper Tennessee defense.
Be sure to set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: $2.75M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st]
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers sho
