Often muffled beneath the pyrotechnic noise of the NFL and the bells and whistles of the NBA is the advent of the college basketball season, which began, this year, on Monday, November 4th. It’s time to start thinking about dark horse contenders and sleeper teams to make it to the Final Four, and perhaps win the entire 2024 NCAA Tournament.
Play is well under way this week, and our coverage at DraftKings Network is in full swing. I’ll also be covering Saturday’s slate, including the massive Houston/Auburn primetime game.
Below are my favorite long shot bets at DraftKings Sportsbook to win the big dance.
And, at the very end of the piece, in the spirit of full transparency: I list my overall pick for National Champion this year. You’ll see me backing them all season long.
Best long shot bets to win the 2024 NCAA Tournament on DraftKings Sportsbook
Creighton Blue Jays (+4500)
Feels like the Jays are always in this conversation since Greg McDermott has taken over as head coach. Except, of course,
Gone are Trey Alexander and Baylor Scheierman—both last year’s leading scorers. Out stage right went, as well, one of the Jays’ more-impressive role players in ’23-’24, Francisco Farabello.
No matter. The Blue Jays lost Ryan Nembhard and Mitch Ballock not two seasons before that. They lost Christian Bishop, too, in a transfer to Texas.
Enter Pop Isaacs! He transferred from Texas Tech, and, when on fire, he’s one of the most dominant scorers in the game. Creighton ranked fifth nationally in offensive efficiency in ’23-’24, and 35th in defensive efficiency. Where this team’s chances go from good-to-great is when you consider the return of Ryan Kalkbrenner—known colloquially as Baby Edey—who, at 7’1″, has elite ball-screening and pick-and-roll ability.
Not to mention, of course, his offensive rebounding, which gives the Jays so many second-chance opportunities.
Marquette Golden Eagles (+7500)
We love Shaka Smart around here. And a Smart-coached team at +7500 to win a tournament is worth a long look.
Especially this Golden Eagles team, wey returning players like Kam Jones, who averaged 17.2 points per game last season. David Joplin’s balanced play will lend stability to the offense which it needs. Marquette emphasizes high efficiency on both ends of the court: defensively, they aim for a slow defensive tempo, averaging only 19.1 seconds per possession. This was key to their success, as their disruptive defense might have been their best quality.
Shaka Smart is elite at developing talent, and I expect Kam Jones to take a superstar leap this season. Combine that with Marquette’s ability to be one of the more frustrating teams against whom to run an offense, and you’ve got a contender.
BYU Cougars (+8000)
Is this all about Egor Demin? It’s a lot about him. The projected top-five lottery NBA pick in 2025 is a 6’9″ guard who used to play for Real Madrid has looked good already this season. Most notably, he dropped eleven dimes against Central Arizona on Tuesday. CA is no legitimate opponent, but we want Demin to Ease-gor himself into this Cougars team.
So, yes—for the most part it’s about Demin. Mark Pope is gone, but the Cougars grabbed Kevin Young to coach them this year from the NBA. And opposite Demin is Kanon Catchings, another NBA-hopeful who’ll help shape up perhaps one of college basketball’s most intriguing backcourts.
Ole Miss Rebels (+8000)
We know SEC teams that live-and-die by the three—besides, maybe, Alabama the last few years—end up dying by it come March. Such was the fate of Chris Beard’s ’23-’24 Rebs, who were absolutely terrible on the road last year. A 2-7 conference road game record is as damning a stat as it comes.
It also, however, represents a ton of value. The addition of 7’1″ center John Bol should mean that the Rebs will be a lot more active on the boards. SEC basketball so often comes down to perimeter defense, paint awareness, and offensive rebouding. The Rebels lacked this in 2023-2024, and many thought if they could just shore up their paint game, they might have a shot at being a legitimate contender in a very deep SEC.
Pair the addition of some deliberate boards attention with returning lead-score Matthew Murrell, who led the team with 16.2 PPG, 1.6 SPG, and a 39.8% three-point percentage, and you might have something special here.
Wisconsin Badgers (+13000)
A.J. Storr is gone, and that’s about the biggest transfer blow to any of the teams listed here. Depth is a legitimate problem for the Badgers. Stephen Crowl needs to work the paint like no other for this team to allow scoring opportunities for the back court of Camren Hunter and Max Klesmit.
If this team can catch any sort of fire like it did in the conference championships last year, and avoid getting just boatraced by James Madison in the opening round of the tourney, I like Wisconsin at this price, but only for a sprinkle.
My favorite bet to win the Big Dance
Creighton Blue Jays (+4500)
Do you remember how disciplined this team was last year? Sure, the Big East tournament saw them stumble to Providence. But they came back in the tourney with a vengeance, and losing to last year’s Dalton Knecht-led Tennessee Vols team in the Sweet 16 is no real letdown.
I think it marks the final step in what’s been about a four-to-five year run for McDermott and the Jays. This pick is nothing without Kalkbrenner, whose return to the Jays is an act of roster mercy for which all Creighton fans can clasp their hands.
Give me Pop Isaacs’s ability to take over a game with, perhaps, a style of offense under Greg McDermott that didn’t
The Jays are a team about balance. Yes, their 35th-ranked defensive efficiency isn’t elite, and doesn’t seem like one that would be able to hack it in the tournament. But that defensive efficiency is balanced by a supercharged offense that is coached to take care of the ball, and hit its free throws.
If there’s one thing to knock, it’s that we’re counting on field goal efficiency. Creighton often averaged over 54% from the field. If that drops even marginally, this team might fall straight out of contention.
I don’t think it will. So, to wit—if this team can avoid major injuries right before the tournament, and find its scoring groove with Pop, Kalkbrenner, and Stephen Ashworth right around January and February, this’ll be a hard team to outwit come March.
Give me the Jays to go all the way at this price right now. I’m also high on Fedor Zugic and Jamiya Neal (Arizona State) to be sneaky-impressive role player for this team down the stretch.
If you want to wait to see if the team loses a few games as it looks to get its new personnel footing, you could do that, too.
Honorable Mention: Iowa State Cyclones (+2200) or to make Final Four (+500)
If I wasn’t such a massive Houston Cougars fan, I would have been all-in on the Cyclones last year. They’re only going to get better this year; T.J. Otzelberger is returning four double-digit scorers from ’23-’24, all of whom were a part of this smothering defense. I think they’re going to remain competitive with Kansas, Houston, Baylor, and Arizona. I like them to, perhaps, look more consistent than any of those teams, too.
At the very least, I like them to make the Final Four. How can you not?
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is thegreatdansby9) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
