These are my picks to win every Week 10 NFL game straight up, tiered by confidence level and ranked within each tier. You can bet on any of these games at DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Week 10 Confidence Picks
High Confidence
Chargers over Titans – The Chargers have won three of their last four games and are now in the thick of the AFC wildcard race. The Jim Harbaugh approach of playing good defense and running the ball is starting to catch on and it is freeing up Justin Herbert to not have to be a hero every week. The Titans managed to pick up a win over the Patriots in overtime last week, but this game could be really tough for them against a stout Chargers defense.
Chiefs over Broncos – The Chiefs are the lone undefeated team in the NFL. While it seems to never be easy for Kansas City, they just keep winning. The Broncos have a good defense and could find a way to keep this close but Patrick Mahomes does not lose against AFC West opponents. Mahomes has particularly dominated the Broncos, against whom he is 12-1 in his career as a starter. The Chiefs’ defense should be able to shut down Bo Nix and keep this a lower-scoring game where the more experienced team will find a way to win once again.
Eagles over Cowboys – The Cowboys are going to be without Dak Prescott and potentially CeeDee Lamb for this game. With those injuries, they won’t have enough offense to keep up with the Eagles. Philadelphia has some issues on the defensive side of the ball but the Cowboys don’t have the weapons to exploit them, especially with Cooper Rush playing quarterback. The Eagles’ offense has been explosive and Saquon Barkley is on fire. They should simply score too many points for the depleted Dallas offense to keep up with.
Bears over Patriots – The Bears need a win to stay alive in the NFC playoff discussion and this is the perfect spot. The Bears have been much better at home than on the road this season and New England is in a really bad place. They finally found a spark last week and it was immediately put out when Jerod Mayo decided to send the game to overtime rather than going for two to win the game. Mayo consistently makes really bad coaching decisions and on the road against a good defense, Drake Maye could make some rookie mistakes. The Bears should have enough to win the game if they avoid bad turnovers.
Giants over Panthers – The Giants are favorites for the first time in their past 25 games. It took facing Bryce Young and the Panthers but the Giants are now 6.5-point favorites in London. The Panthers actually picked up a win last week over the Saints but they have a lot of issues on both sides of the ball. The Giants have a good run defense and that is about the only thing the Panthers do well. To beat the Giants you need to get pressure on Daniel Jones and you need to throw deep on their secondary and the Panthers can’t do either of those things so New York should get the win.
Medium Confidence
Vikings over Jaguars – The Jaguars could possibly be without Trevor Lawrence for this game against the Vikings. If a backup QB starts, the Minnesota defense should dominate. Brian Flores has been masterful all season and should be able to shut down a Jacksonville offense that has issues even with Lawrence playing. The Jaguars also don’t have the guys in the secondary to slow down Sam Darnold and Justin Jefferson.
49ers over Buccaneers – The Buccaneers put up a good fight last week against the Chiefs but this is a bad spot for them. They will be emotionally depleted after losing that game on Monday Night Football in overtime and they are still dealing with a lot of injuries. Meanwhile, the 49ers had a bye week and should be fully prepared for this game. San Francisco needs to start picking up some wins and it is possible that Christian McCaffrey will be back for this game as the 49ers look to build momentum. This is a spot where the 49ers could dominate.
Ravens over Bengals – The Ravens face the Bengals on Thursday Night Football. This should be a back-and-forth shootout between two good offenses but ultimately the Ravens have a significant edge with their coaching staff. That should be the difference in this game between making the winning play and the losing play, just like it was when these teams played earlier this season. The Ravens won that game in overtime because of very poor coaching decisions from Zac Taylor.
Bills over Colts – The Colts’ offense should be better with Joe Flacco at the helm but they still lack an identity. The Bills will simply have too much firepower for the Colts to overcome. Josh Allen is playing at an MVP level and will make the one or two exceptional plays needed to win this game. Indianapolis is not excellent at any facet of the game on either side of the ball and is just too easy to beat for an elite offensive team like Buffalo.
Falcons over Saints – The Falcons are proving to be the class of the NFC South. They have won five of their past six games and already beat this Saints team earlier in the season. The Saints will certainly be more competitive with Derek Carr but this is a team that just lost to the Panthers. It could be a close divisional game but Kirk Cousins is the quarterback that I trust to make the late-game drive to win this game.
Coin-Flip Games
Commanders over Steelers – The Commanders can no longer be considered a fluke. They are one of the best teams in the league and Jayden Daniels is one of the best quarterbacks in the league. The Steelers are 2-0 with Russell Wilson at quarterback but those wins were against the Jets and Giants. The Commanders’ offense is on another level compared to those teams and Pittsburgh should struggle to get stops. It could be a back-and-forth game but ultimately the Commanders offense should overpower Pittsburgh.
Lions over Texans – The Lions are arguably the best team in football at the moment. However, this is a good spot for Houston. They are coming off of a game on Thursday Night Football so they have a rest advantage. They have also been a much better team at home the past two seasons with C.J. Stroud. They have a chance to get Nico Collins back this week as well which would give their offense a massive boost. The Texans should keep it close but the Lions are the more trustworthy team at the moment so they should just squeak out the win.
Jets over Cardinals – The Jets finally picked up a win they desperately needed against the Texans. They then also got some very needed extra rest after playing on Thursday Night Football. Their defense is finally getting healthy and the offense is looking more like Jets fans hoped it would with Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams both having a huge game against Houston. The Cardinals have been squeaking out close games and beating up on bad teams. The Jets should find a way to win this game as things start breaking their way.
Rams over Dolphins – The Rams and Dolphins play on Monday Night Football and this game is a true coin flip. Both teams have been a bit underwhelming this season, particularly Miami. Both offenses should have a decent amount of success in this game and are better than the opposing defense. However, I will take the more trustworthy quarterback, Matthew Stafford, at home in the coin-flip game.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is blakekrass) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and cannot access any non-public information.
