After another two-for-four week last week. Still chasing the ever-elusive perfect slip.
What say we head into the first double-digit Week of the NFL season with a four-for-four start/sit in mind?
Start ‘Em
Arizona Cardinals D/ST (vs. New York Jets; 55.0% rostered)
Everything about this Cardinals team seems to be poised to make a run at the NFC West crown in 2024. The game against the Bears—though the Bears are, unfortunately, still the Bears—was a decisive evening-slate victory that many out-of-region audiences watched. It was hard not to be impressed by this Arizona defensive unit.
The Bears offensive line had improved significantly in their stretch surrounding their dominant London game win against the Jaguars. Bill Murray had started finding himself in the tackle rotation, and he was excelling at it. But this Cardinals front absolutely decimated any momentum the Bears’ offensive line may have found to the tune of six sacks.
You never count the Niners out of the NFC west. The Rams are on the rise. The Cardinals have a home game against one of the NFL’s biggest punchlines of the season. Expect the defense to continue smothering a patchwork New York offensive line with high efficiency. The Cardinals only blitz around 27% of the time, but create QB pressures on over 29% of dropbacks, with a 6.3% sack rate.
Los Angeles Rams D/ST (vs. Miami Dolphins; 6.1% rostered)
During the four-game stretch we’ve been riding the must-win, on-the-rise defensive unit out there for the Rams, they’ve posted the following FPT finishes: 11.0, 18.0, 7.0, and 18.0 points. Much of that has been because they’ve been scoring touchdowns in droves on the defensive side of the ball.
But there are legitimate reasons to believe this defense, without major game-breaking plays, can be effective for sixty minutes. Jared Verse and Braden Fiske—both rookies out of FSU—have become legitimate forces in the front-seven. Their QBP rate and run stuff rate is up, collectively, significantly in the last few games.
This play represents a risk because where the Rams lose is on explosive plays. The Dolphins generate explosive plays like Disney generates joy. But their offensive line isn’t a sure thing, and I’m thinking this Rams front-seven, at home, is going to be as inspired as ever after an OT victory during which they sacked Geno Smith seven times. They’ll pressure Tua, sack him a few times, and might create a turnover.
However, the Rams also might see four touchdowns hung on them in the first half. You never know with the Dolphins. But I believe in LA.
If you’re not comfortable with this play, you could just chalk the Giants D/ST against the Panthers in London, but London games are as funky as Monday Night Football letdown spots, no?
Sit ‘Em
Carolina Panthers D/ST (vs. New York Giants [London]; 11.7% rostered)
This defense is widely available in leagues, and they’re facing the 28th-ranked offense in terms of fantasy scoring. There’s some legitimate allure here. They’re one of the more added defensive units (about 10% of that 11.7% listed above is from this week) since Wednesday’s waivers, likely because people think: Daniel Jones in London.
Don’t be cute. This unit has scores zero-or-fewer fantasy points in six of its ten games. That’s all the analysis you need. Better chance they actively hurt you than help you.
Detroit Lions D/ST (vs. Houston Texans; 61.0% rostered)
The offensive line for the Texans may not be of the caliber it was in 2023, and the addition of ZaDarius Smith makes the Lions even more imposing than they already were.
But if Nico Collins comes back on Sunday, and C.J. Stroud has his 2023 compliment of receivers (Collins, Tank Dell, and Robert Woods) plus Dalton Schultz, and a resurgent Joe Mixon in the backfield, I like this to be a primetime spot for the Texans to impress, and at least give Detroit a run for their money.
Even if Stroud & co. can’t hang a number, we know they can generate yards. The Texans are third in the league in dropbacks and fifth in the league in passing yards. I’d stay away, here.
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