AFC North rivals face off in primetime when the Ravens host the Bengals on Thursday Night Football. Baltimore enters the contest as six-point favorites, with the over/under set at 53 points.
Cincinnati’s playoff hopes are currently on thin ice. With a 3-5 record this season, Joe Burrow and company will need every win they can get, even against a squad as talented as Baltimore. That might mean controlling time of possession via the run game, easier said than done against a Ravens team that loves to churn the clock.
Establishing the ground game is sure to be difficult against a Ravens team giving up the fewest rushing yards in football this year. Still, there’s likely to be increased defensive attention on Joe Burrow and the passing game, which has carried Cincinnati’s offense so far. The potential third-straight game missed by wide receiver Tee Higgins will only make throwing the ball downfield even more difficult.
If the Bengals do pivot from the passing game, running back Chase Brown should be in line for plenty of work. Although the team did trade for fellow back Khalil Herbert at the trade deadline, the former Chicago Bear is expected to replace backup Zack Moss, who will miss the rest of the year with a neck injury. With just two days to prepare for Thursday’s game, I doubt Cincinnati will play their new acquisition for more than a few snaps.
During the Week 5 matchup between these two teams, Brown struggled to generate much offense (54 yards from scrimmage). However, he did find the end zone on a four-yard pass from Burrow. With no other player set to receive even a third of the carries this week, there should be far more volume for the second-year pro.
While the price on Brown scoring a touchdown is still worth playing, bettors could find far more value in backing him as a first touchdown scorer. If the Bengals do fall behind, it would come closer to the second half, so an early rushing score remains the most likely time for Brown to reach the end zone.
The Play: Chase Brown anytime touchdown (-120) OR Chase Brown first touchdown scorer (+750)
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