The Week 10 edition of Thursday Night Football sees the 4-5 Cincinnati Bengals take on the 6-3 Baltimore Ravens in an AFC North battle. The first matchup between these two teams went to overtime, in which the Ravens won by three points. They are now six-point favorites at home against the Bengals on DraftKings Sportsbook.
There are far more ways to get involved in the action than just via traditional betting. One of the more unique features on DraftKings this year is Pick6 Fantasy Football!
Bengals at Ravens Pick6 Plays
The Bengals have won three of their last four games to move to 4-5 on the season. After a disastrous start, they are somewhat back in the playoff race. A win in this game would put them in a really good position to make the postseason. Their offense is starting to fire on all cylinders, led by MVP-level play by Joe Burrow. Unfortunately for them, their defense has not been able to keep up with the offensive production.
Meanwhile, the Ravens are 6-1 in their last seven games after starting the season 0-2. They are one of the best teams in the AFC with Lamar Jackson in the midst of another MVP-like season and Derrick Henry leading the league in rushing. However, they have had a leaky secondary which has been exploited the past few weeks, including in the first matchup between these two teams.
Here are my top Pick6 plays for the Thursday night AFC North matchup.
Lamar Jackson More Than 1.5 Passing TDs
Lamar Jackson is having arguably the best season of his career from a passing perspective, which is amazing since he already has two NFL MVPs. Jackson is second in the league in EPA+CPOE composite and adjusted EPA/play among qualified quarterbacks. He has 20 passing touchdowns through nine games, coming out to an average of 2.2 passing touchdowns per game. In recent weeks, he has really hit his stride with ten passing touchdowns in just three games.
Jackson has cleared the 1.5 passing TD mark in five of his past six games, including the previous matchup against the Bengals when he threw for four touchdowns. The last time these teams played, the Bengals loaded the box to prevent Henry and Jackson from running the football, forcing Jackson to win with his arm. He ended up doing just that, but it is likely the Bengals come with a similar approach again on Thursday night. That will allow for Jackson to throw for multiple touchdowns both in the red zone and potentially on deep shots against a vulnerable secondary.
Derrick Henry Less Than 89.5 Rushing Yards
Picking against Derrick Henry is a scary prospect, but this number is really high. Henry has gone under the 89.5 mark in three out of nine games this season, and barely exceeded it the first time out against the Bengals. In that game, Henry had 92 rushing yards on 15 carries but that included a 51-yard rush. Excluding that one explosive run, Henry would only have totaled 41 yards on 14 carries. In games where he doesn’t have an explosive play, his yardage total is staying relatively low.
The game script against Cincinnati could go similar to the game against the Browns two weeks ago. It should be a higher-scoring back-and-forth game so there won’t be long stretches for Henry to run out the clock and rack up yards as he has in many games this season. The Ravens should also attack the Bengals through the air and limit Henry’s carries. Against Cleveland, Henry had just 11 carries and picked up 73 yards. The Bengals should focus on taking away the explosive rush from Henry and that will keep him under this total.
Joe Burrow More Than 24.5 Completions
Joe Burrow is single-handedly carrying this Bengals team on a winning run. He is 4th in the NFL in EPA+CPOE composite, second in QBR and passing touchdowns, and fifth in passing yards. Burrow had 27 completions against the Raiders last week and 26 against Philadelphia the week before. Based on his recent run, he should comfortably clear this number.
Also, in his last matchup against the Ravens, he had a season-high 30 completions. In back-and-forth shootout games like the first one against Baltimore, against Washington and against Philadelphia, Burrow cleared this number. This game script is set up to be similar with two explosive passing offenses and two vulnerable secondaries so Burrow should clear this number again.
Mike Gesicki More Than 52.5 Receiving Yards
Gesicki has had two of his three best games of the season in the past two weeks. He hit 100 receiving yards for the first time this season last week against the Raiders, and had 73 the week before that. With Tee Higgins out, Gesicki has taken the second-best target share on the offense, only behind Ja’Marr Chase.
Higgins is doubtful to play Thursday night, so Gesicki is likely to be a focal point again for Joe Burrow. When Higgins missed time earlier in the year, no receiver emerged as a clear second option to Chase and the offense struggled. This time around with Higgins out, Gesicki has emerged as that guy and has led the team in receiving yards over the past two weeks. He should be set up for another big game against a Baltimore secondary which ranks 29th in EPA/dropback.
Evan McPherson More Than 6.5 Kicking Points
McPherson has not been as automatic as he was the last couple of seasons, but he can hit attempts from basically any distance, which still makes him very valuable as a kicker. The Bengals’ offense has also been firing on all cylinders, which has set McPherson up for success.
In three games this season, including last week and also including their first matchup with Baltimore, the Bengals scored at least four touchdowns. That gives McPherson four kicking points simply by making his PAT attempts, of which he has only missed one this season. From there, he would only need one field goal on top of the four PATs. There is a second path, in which McPherson needs to make just two field goals and one extra point, which McPherson has done in five out of nine games this year.
Zay Flowers More Than 60.5 Receiving Yards
The Bengals’ secondary is 20th in EPA/dropback and has been exploited by good passing offenses this season. That includes the Ravens in the first matchup between the two teams, when Lamar Jackson threw for 348 yards. In that first game, Flowers had 111 receiving yards on seven catches. He tied his season-high in targets during that game as well with 12. This game should play out similarly to the first one, with two explosive passing offenses facing two subpar secondaries.
Flowers has been the clear lead receiver for Lamar Jackson this season. He has more than 200 receiving yards than other Ravens, plus nearly double the receptions as the next-closest teammate. He has the ability to take the short throws and pick up a lot of yards after the catch, but can also catch the deep ball from Jackson. That makes him difficult to defend and a weapon for the Ravens. He has cleared 90 receiving yards in five out of nine games this season and should comfortably clear this number against Cincinnati for the second time this season.
What is DraftKings Pick6?
Pick6 is a peer-to-peer fantasy variant where you build a lineup (your “Pick Set”) of two or more players and select whether you believe each will outperform their listed stat projection. Enter your Pick Set in Pick6 contests to compete against other users. Get enough picks correct and win a share of cash prizes.
How to Play DraftKings Pick6
Create a Pick Set
Create a Pick Set by choosing two or more players from the same sport and Pick Group (a set of picks available from a group of set competitions). For each player, simply select if you think they’ll have more or less than their listed stat projection. In each Pick Set, you cannot pick the same player twice and you must pick players from at least two different teams.
Enter an Amount
Once you finalize your Pick Set, choose your entry fee amount. Your entries will be automatically distributed into available contests, subject to your confirmation.
Sweat Your Picks
When the games go live, use the My Picks tab to follow your picks in real time to track how your players are performing against their projections and how they stack up against other users.
Compete for Prizes
Make enough correct picks and win a share of the contests’ guaranteed prizes. Any prizes won will be credited to your DraftKings account after contests are finalized.
Play at DraftKings Pick6 or by downloading the DraftKings Pick6 app on Apple or Google!
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is blakekrass) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and cannot access any non-public information.
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