We’re entering NFL Week 10, which means we’re somehow already halfway through the football season. That means it’s a good time for some mid-season awards, however, we’ll be putting a betting twist on these rankings. Rather than who I’d give the awards to if the season ended today, we’ll be projecting to the finish line here and ranking my favorite bets for each major NFL award.
MVP
- Patrick Mahomes (+400)
- Jayden Daniels (+1200)
- Josh Allen (+300)
- Jared Goff (+700)
Mahomes is getting a lot of hate for his fantasy stats this season, but he’s still led Kansas City to an undefeated record and is helping his team win games in crunch time. The Chiefs have a difficult game against Buffalo remaining, but there’s a chance they can run the table, or go 16-1. We all know this team would be nowhere as good without Mahomes at QB, so if they achieve that type of record, it’s tough to deny Mahomes the award. Lamar Jackson (+280) is the betting favorite, but Mahomes is the better wager.
As long as he stays healthy we know Daniels is a lock for OROY, and honestly, he could miss games and still likely win the award. Taking a team with the No. 2 pick in the draft to a 7-2 record is not easy to do. If the Commanders finish the season as hot as they’ve been to start, MVP talks will get very real for Daniels.
Much like Mahomes, Allen is just asked to do a lot for his offense. Allen does have the better numbers, which makes him a shorter price to win the award. However, the Bills will also likely finish with a worse record than the Chiefs. Given Kansas City being undefeated, I’d rather bet Mahomes at the longer price.
The Lions have a chance to dominate the NFC and lock the 1-seed down. While it’s very much a team effort for Detroit, Goff is having an insanely efficient season for a terrific offense. Goff would have a good chance at it if he keeps this up for a Lions team that winds up something like 14-3, especially if Mahomes and Allen start dropping some games.
OROY
- Bo Nix (+1700)
- Caleb Williams (+2500)
- Drake Maye (+3000)
- Jayden Daniels (-1400)
OROY is somewhat un-betable. Assuming you don’t want to lay -1400 with Jayden Daniels, the award would open up if Daniels missed any time. Nix and the Broncos are winning games, and he would pick up some steam in any other season. But again, this is Daniels’ award if he stays on the field. Williams and Maye would come next for me in the OROY rankings after Nix, although if building a franchise long-term, you’d probably go with Williams and Maye first. Daniels -1400 is all but a sure thing to win, and you could consider mixing him into some award parlays.
DROY
- Jared Verse (-200)
- Laiatu Latu (+650)
- Quinyon Mitchell (+900)
- Byron Murphy (+2000)
Verse has been the most dominant rookie on defense by a pretty wide margin. His 1.5 sacks in the Rams upset win over the Vikings on Thursday Night Football really started to separate him from the pack. Latu is the next favorite, and a solid play, while Mitchell has helped a Philly secondary settle in after really struggling down the stretch last season. Murphy is an interesting long shot given what a nice surprise Minnesota has been on defense this season.
OPOY
- Saquon Barkley (+215)
- Derrick Henry (-145)
- Justin Jefferson (+500)
- Jahmyr Gibbs (+4000)
I’m staying away from the quarterback position for OPOY, and outside of Jefferson, no real receiver has separated himself. Jefferson is a solid choice for the award, but this likely comes down to those top-two running backs. Henry has likely had the better season to date, leading the league in rushing. But from a betting standpoint, I don’t think Barkley is far behind, so taking +215 on Saquon has some appeal, particularly after the highlights he posted against Jacksonville. While it should come down to those two guys, looking over to the Lions isn’t a bad idea. Let’s say Detroit wins none of the other awards, and Barkley and Henry have slow finishes or get hurt. A home run hitter like Gibbs could fly down the board as the season progresses.
DPOY
- T.J. Watt (-135)
- Chris Jones (+650)
- Patrick Surtain (+2200)
- Will Anderson (+1000)
Watt is a deserving odds-on-favorite here. Here’s won the award in the past, and is the anchor of a Pittsburgh defense that began the season racking up wins, despite not scoring many points. If we look beyond Watt, the Chiefs are again winning on defense. Like the Mahomes analysis, if Kansas City wins 16 or 17 games and keeps putting up numbers like this, it’s going to be hard to deny Jones. Longer shots like Surtain and Anderson are interesting, but would have a lot of work to do. Surtain is a shutdown corner, though, and has a chance to have a season like Stephon Gilmore did when he won in 2019.
COY
- Dan Quinn (+180)
- Kevin O’Connell (+500)
- Jim Harbaugh (+600)
- Mike Tomlin (+900)
While Daniels is a good MVP bet, it’s much more likely that he does not win the award. If Quinn can get this team to 12 or more wins, he would have a terrific shot to win the award. Remember, this award hasn’t gone to the “best” coach in recent years. It goes to coaches that can overachieve the most or produce the most improvement. Meanwhile, that’s what O’Connell has done in Minnesota, which makes him a solid bet at well. As expected, Harbaugh has the Chargers favored to go from having a top-five pick to making the playoffs. Then there’s Tomlin, who always seems to be floating around. But it doesn’t hurt that the Steelers have come flying out of the gates, well exceeding expectations.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
