The PGA TOUR has three fall events left on its schedule, with the first coming this week over in Mexico at the WWT championship. This event used to be held on the East side of Mexico, over in Mayakoba but switched sides and is now held at the El Cardonal Golf Club, which is located in Cabo San Lucas on thh Baja Peninsula. The new course, El Cardonal, was designed by Tiger Woods (his first-ever creation) and is a sprawling 7,400+ par 72 course that is wide open and has little to no trees or rough to hamper players off the tee or on approach. Its main defense is the wind, but as we learned last season, even a little wind from off the coast won’t hamper players much on this setup, where the slower Paspalum greens give players a chance to make a ton of birdies.
Last season, the winner, Erik van Rooyen, managed a 63 in Round 4 and got in the clubhouse at 27 under par to win by two. Overall, we saw lots of veteran players do well at this venue as strong iron play, putting, and course management are mostly all that is needed to ensure a decent week. I do expect we’ll see low scoring again, especially with the forecast for the first two days looking relatively mild in terms of wind, something to keep in mind when making Pick6 lineups and choosing between the more than and less than options in categories like birdies or better and total strokes.
While I’m going to be choosing the bullish option on every player blindly, certainly with how low the scoring was here last season, we should expect a lot of players to outperform their averages from the season in most rounds this week.
With that in mind, let’s get to this week’s picks.
Matti Schmid Less Than 68.5 Strokes
Schmid is a talented player who comes in showing good form. He gained strokes across the board at the Shriners (T3) and comes in ranked a solid fourth in BoB% and 12th in Bogey Avoidance over the last 24 rounds of play. On top of the solid stats he’s producing, Schmid is just tailor-made for these birdie fest sort of events, where short games don’t come into play as much, and he can be aggressive with his irons and driver into these larger greens and fairways.
The German also played well at El Cardonal last season, shooting three rounds of 68 or better in the 2023 version of this event. While he’s one of the favorites to win this week, Schmid’s first-round total in DraftKings Pick6 is set at 68.5, which is a full stroke above where other top players are set. That and the fact he’ll have a nice early tee time in Round 1 (in hopefully calmer conditions) make him a solid target to play to go low on Thursday.
Harry Hall More Than 5.5 Birdies
Hall is playing some of the steadiest golf of his career and it’s shown on the stat sheet. On top of producing T9 and T13 finishes over his last two starts the Englishman also ranks 15th in opportunities gained and 2nd in BoB gained over the last 24 rounds. A recent winner on the PGA, Hall is an elite putter who converts often when given the chance and should be able to make some low scores around this easier course–which features four par 4s and numerous short par 4s.
While 5.5 birdies is a big total, the setup at El Cardonal almost forces players into being aggressive, which is going to seriously up the birdie rate of the field. Hall himself made six birdies in Round 1 here last season, despite opening with a 69 and missing the cut. Now playing much better, I don’t see any reason not to back to repeat that same feat on the same course in 2024.
Doug Ghim More Than 5.5 Birdies or Better
Ghim has become somewhat of an old reliable for me in these Pick6 lineups. The American has played well since the start of the fall season, producing made cuts in all five of his fall starts and a career-best 2nd place finish at the Shriners just three weeks ago. Ghim’s irons have been the best part of his game for the most part this fall and he comes in having gained over 4.0 strokes on approach in five of his last nine starts. That kind of iron play has led to plenty of birdie chances as he’s also 6th in opportunities gained over the last 24 rounds.
For Round 1, Ghim’s birdie total is set at 5.5, and while he’s not as elite of a putter as some of the other top players in this field, I’m inclined to trust that he’ll clear this total once again on Thursday. On top of playing well at this venue last season (T15, rounds of 65 and 67), Ghim has also been a solid early-round player, and ranks a solid 12th in Round 1 scoring on the PGA for 2024; making him an ideal player to back (for a fast start) in Round 1.
Ben Griffin More Than 67.5 Strokes
I’m not going out of my way to fade the top names on this course, but Griffin is one of a handful of players whose first-round total is set at 67.5 (as opposed to 68.5). That makes backing him to go lower than his total somewhat problematic in Round 1 and also makes it worth looking to the other side, to see if it’s worthwhile to back him to for a post a bigger total on Thursday. While he’s not played terribly of late, he has slowed down a bit, missing the cut at the Shriners and posting a T22 at the Zozo Championship, where he started slowly with rounds of 71 and 70.
Maybe Griffin comes in with better form to Mexico, but before the Zozo it’s worth noting that he had lost strokes on approach in three of his previous four starts and currently ranks just 32nd in BoB% and 34th in opportunities gained over the last 24 rounds. Unless he gets his putter together, we could see him start slowly and, overall, there are certainly a handful of players I would rank above him this week, who have higher Round 1 totals of 68.5.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recomm
