Let’s breakdown some of the top matchups this weekend in College Football and dish out some best bets for the games. I put my plays for this week out earlier on Twitter, and am using those numbers below.
Syracuse at Boston College ML (-120) – 1.5-units
This is as much of a spot play as anything, with Syracuse riding high off and overtime win at home, while Boston College has had some time to stew on a tough loss. Despite Virginia Tech playing at the Dome without its starting quarterback and running back, the Hokies were still in great position to get a road win in a game they were favored in. But the Orange made a late run, and stole the game in overtime.
But not only is Syracuse coming off a big and emotional victory, they now have to go on the road to a team that Bill O’Brien should have well prepared. The Eagles hosted Louisville on Friday night back in Week 9, and despite getting out to a 20-0 lead, blew the game and lost 31-27. The Eagles were on bye in Week 10, so they’ve had a full 15 days between games to prepare for Syracuse. Perfect spot for BC to get back on track at home.
Colorado at Texas Tech +3.5 (-110) – 1-unit
With all these teams dropping like flies in the Big 12, the Colorado hype is actually starting to get real — the Buffalos have a shot to win the conference, putting them in the College Football Playoff. But when the hype is there, that’s generally when things go wrong for this bunch.
Colorado has been amazing on the road so far this season, but Lubbock will be the toughest place to play that the Buffs have seen yet. It’s not usually my style to bet on a team coming off a huge upset win as the Red Raiders are, but getting them as a home dog here feels good. Colorado is a big enough game to get up for, so I’ll overlook the letdown spot given the opponent.
Alabama ML (-145) at LSU – 1-unit
Alabama earned the home win over LSU last season, but you’ll remember two years ago the Tide fell in overtime in Baton Rouge. ‘Bama has dropped two road games thus far, but it is a well-tested road team, so I expect it to be ready for this Saturday night atmosphere. While Kalen DeBoer has fallen flat in some spots in his first season in Tuscaloosa, he’s also stepped up for some huge games, much like Georgia six weeks ago.
I trust DeBoer to have a great offensive game plan in this game, and we’ve seen the Crimson Tide make steps defensively as the season has progressed. On the other hand, I do not trust Brian Kelly in these big games. We saw LSU go to Texas A&M and get thrown completely off track by a mobile quarterback in Marcel Reed, so I expect Jalen Milroe to be capable of doing some massive damage in this game. With ‘Bama’s defense peaking at the right time, and Milroe’s big play ability, I see more edges for the Tide here, coaching included.
Oklahoma at Missouri +3.5 (-120) – 2-units
Missouri could be without quarterback Brady Cook in this game, which would be a blow. But that doesn’t mean the Tigers can’t handle what’s been an extremely underwhelming Oklahoma team. This is only the Sooners’ third road game of the season, losing at Ole Miss and getting extremely fortunate to pull out a victory at Auburn.
If we throw out a win over Maine last week, Oklahoma has scored 26 total points in its last three SEC games. I don’t see much success for the offense going on the road against a good Missouri defense. The Tigers are off a bye and should be particularly pissed off about getting shutout 34-0 at Alabama two weeks ago.
BYU at Utah +3.5 (-115) – 1-unit
Stepping in front of the BYU train hasn’t gone well this season, but eventually the Cougars will run out of luck, and this is a very tricky spot that I don’t think we should overlook. Sure, Utah has been a disappointment this season, sitting at just 4-4 despite going off the favorite in all eight games. But now without any expectations or pressure, I expect Kyle Whittingham’s squad to play free in this one. All the pressure will be on the BYU side, and this is going to remain a difficult road atmosphere.
This is still a big rivalry game, and getting the Utes priced as an underdog for the first time this season has a lot of appeal, especially at home. Utah will have to figure things out on offense, which has been a struggle at times without a healthy Cam Rising. However, the Utes are still terrific on defense, and I think they’ll give the Cougars some trouble in this one. Expect a solid defensive game plan from Whittingham, and Utah to be able to move the ball on the ground. My preseason analysis on Utah was wrong, but this is too intriguing of a buy-low spot on Utah for me to pass up on.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
