MLB Free Agency officially got underway on Monday, and while we won’t likely see some of the bigger names signing any time soon, it’s time to start understanding the landscape. It’s certainly a deeper class than in 2023 and though there isn’t a Shohei Ohtani to be found, Juan Soto is a pretty good baseball player in his own right.
Who are the top 10 players that will be on the market this winter? Let’s dive in and break it down.
1. Juan Soto, OF
2024 Team: New York Yankees
2024 Key Stat: .463 Expected wOBA
Soto hits free agency at the perfect time. Not only is he coming off a season where he slashed .288/.419/.569 with a career-high 41 home runs, but he only turned 26-years-old two weeks ago. He might be the best pure hitter of his generation and he’ll be in his prime for at least another half-decade. The only real worry with Soto is his glove. He’s an atrocious defender — he sat in the 14th percentile in OAA in 2024 — and he profiles as a DH-type towards the back-half of what will surely be a lengthy contract. It’s fine. He’s that good at the plate.
2. Roki Sasaki, SP
2024 Team: Chiba Lotte Marines
2024 Key Stat: 2.35 ERA (NPB)
It appears that Sasaki will be coming over from Japan this winter and his age (23) immediately makes him one of the most intriguing free agent pitchers we’ve had in some time. As showcased in the World Baseball Classic, Sasaki has no issues with fastball velocity, as the right-hander can hit triple-digits on the radar gun with ease. That’s translated into a massive 34.0% strikeout rate in the NPB since the beginning of 2022. The only red flag with Sasaki is durability and longevity. Sasaki has only made 33 starts across the past two seasons.
3. Corbin Burnes, SP
2024 Team: Baltimore Orioles
2024 Key Stat: 3.27 xERA
I’ll admit that I’m having a difficult time projecting Burnes’ next few seasons. On the one hand, Burnes has performed as one of the league’s best pitchers since the beginning of 2021. In fact, in that span of time, the RHP has posted a 2.94 ERA and a 3.08 FIP across 757.0 innings. Only Zack Wheeler has accumulated more fWAR in that stretch among qualified arms. On the other hand, Burnes’ strikeout rate has fallen each of the last three seasons and the 29-year-old didn’t even average a strikeout per inning in 2024. Burnes enters free agency as a certified ace, there’s just some things trending in the wrong direction.
4. Max Fried, SP
2024 Team: Atlanta Braves
2024 Key Stat: 58.8% Ground Ball Rate
I don’t think the average fan would put Fried in the same tier as the aforementioned Burnes, yet the two are not all that different — at least their production hasn’t been in recent seasons. Dating back to 2020, Fried’s 2.81 ERA is actually the lowest of all qualified starters with at least 500.0 innings thrown. The left-hander isn’t a strikeout savant, yet he’s maintained his fastball velocity and his career 23.9% strikeout rate is above-average. Fried’s real value is in his ability to supress launch angle and his unwillingness to walk opponents. Those skills could age quite well.
5. Willy Adames, SS
2024 Team: Milwaukee Brewers
2024 Key Stat: 4.8 fWAR
There’s a lot to like about Adames, though you probably don’t love any one thing, either. The shortstop would likely have more notoriety if he hadn’t spent his career in Tampa Bay and Milwaukee, yet the 29-year-old has been a solid 3-4 win player for a half-decade. Adames is an above-average defender at a premium position. He also ranked in the 84th percentile of expected slugging in 2024 (.474). That wasn’t a fluke. Adames has posted an ISO over .200 in four of the last five seasons. The power is real and it helps offset his contact concerns.
6. Blake Snell, SP
2024 Team: San Francisco Giants
2024 Key Stat: 2.43 FIP
If last winter taught us anything, it’s that team’s don’t seem to want to give someone with Snell’s mercurial profile a long-term deal. Still, the left-hander has pitched to a 2.57 ERA with a 32.7% strikeout rate the past two seasons. He’s taken home two Cy Young Awards in his career. He was also nearly unhittable in the second-half of 2024 after he’d essentially gone through faux Spring Training in May and June. In his final 68.1 innings, Snell registered a 1.45 ERA with a microscopic 1.72 FIP. The highs are so, so high.
7. Alex Bregman, 3B
2024 Team: Houston Astros
2024 Key Stat: .315 OBP
Bregman has had a fantastic career, yet his profile is a little scary if you’re a GM looking to offer a long-term contract. Not only is the All-Star now on the wrong side of 30, but his numbers have been in a steady decline in recent years. Specifically, it’s the power numbers that send a chill down my spine. Bregman hit 41 long balls in 2019 — famously known as the juiced ball season. Since, he’s managed just a .795 OPS and a .184 ISO. He also saw his walk rate (6.9%) and OBP (.315) fall off a cliff in 2024, which is sometimes a signal that a player’s bat speed is eroding. Not ideal.
8. Pete Alonso, 1B
2024 Team: New York Mets
2024 Key Stat: 162 Games
Alonso is what he is at this point in his career. Since the beginning of 2019, only Aaron Judge has hit more home runs than Alonso’s 226. However, the soon-to-be 30-year-old provides little to no value on the bases or in the field. He’s also on the heels of his worst campaign in his time with the Mets, hitting only 34 long balls and posting an underwhelming .345 expected wOBA. Still, Alonso almost never misses a game. Between that and the raw power, he remains an asset.
9. Jack Flaherty, SP
2024 Team: Detroit Tigers & Los Angeles Dodgers
2024 Key Stat: 5.9% Walk Rate
We saw how important Flaherty’s velocity is in the postseason. When he has it, he can look like an ace. When he doesn’t, things can get ugly really quickly. Still, on the whole, this was a nice campaign for the RHP. Flaherty seemed like the next star in the Cardinals’ rotation back in 2019, but he struggled with performance and injuries. Then, in 2024, Flaherty pitched to a 3.17 ERA and 29.9% strikeout rate over 162.0 innings. He also appeared to squash the control issues that have plagued him in recent years. Flaherty will make a team very happy this winter, even if the consistency isn’t there.
10. Anthony Santander, OF
2024 Team: Baltimore Orioles
2024 Key Stat: 44 Home Runs
Santander is sort of the outfielder version of the aforementioned Alonso. He possesses plus-power and not much else. However, Santander at least brings a switch-hitting element to the table. He was solid from both sides of the dish in 2024, registering a 123 wRC+ as an RHB and a 132 wRC+ as an LHB. He also sported a ghastly .225 BABIP last season — the lowest qualified mark in baseball. Santander’s career BABIP is just .263 thanks to his extreme fly ball profile, yet the 30-year-old should benefit from a little normalization in 2025.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
