Week 9 of the NFL slate will be concluded with a matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Chiefs remain the lone undefeated team in the NFL while the Buccaneers sit at 4-4 on the season.
Injuries are the most notable story for the Buccaneers. They will be without their top two pass catchers as Mike Evans’ hamstring issues popped up again last week and Chris Godwin suffered a gruesome season-ending ankle injury. They will now look to power through without their top two wide receivers and face the defending champions.
Kansas City may hold an unblemished record but it has yet to play its best football. The Chiefs have leaned on their defense and rank third in points allowed and fifth in yards given up on the season. Patrick Mahomes entered the week tied for the most interceptions in the league and is below his standard by all passing metrics. Expect this to change moving forward.
The Chiefs enter this game as nine-point favorites and are -410 on the moneyline. The Buccaneers are +320 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook and the game total is set at 45.5 for the matchup. With the stage fully set for the Monday Night Football matchup, here are four player props I like.
Patrick Mahomes Over 249.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Through the opening seven games of the season, Patrick Mahomes is throwing for 235.9 passing yards per game. This is the lowest number of his career and well below the 292.0 passing yards per game he has produced at.
Even amid his struggles, Mahomes has thrown for over 249.5 passing yards in three of the seven games. He has thrown for an average of over 249.5 passing yards per game in all seven seasons of his career before this season.
Tampa Bay also provides a great opportunity for Mahomes to begin getting back on track. So far this season, it ranks 27th in points allowed and 30th in yards given up. The Buccaneers also rank 30th in passing yards allowed, 27th in passing touchdowns and 23rd in net yards per pass attempt. Expect the combination of Mahomes returning to form and a struggling Buccaneers defense to pave the way for an effective performance. Based on Mahomes’ talent, 249.5 passing yards is too low of a total, so don’t be surprised if this ends up his best passing performance of the season so far.
Cade Otton Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
The Buccaneers will need someone to step up amid the wide receiver injuries and Cade Otton should be first in line. The third-year tight end has impressed thus far and is in the midst of his best season in the NFL.
Otton has tallied 36 receptions for 344 yards and three touchdowns already this season. He is also coming off the best two games of his career. Most recently, Otton tallied nine receptions for 81 yards and two touchdowns last week against the Falcons. The week prior he had eight receptions for 100 yards, the only 100-yard performance of his career.
Without Evans and Godwin, the Buccaneers will need their other pass catchers to step up and Otton should be first in line for this. He has more familiarity with Baker Mayfield than some of the other options and has a chance to climb to one of the top-performing tight ends for the remainder of the season. Expect him to build off the back-to-back week with 10 targets sent his direction and for Otton to ultimately eclipse 52.5 receiving yards.
Kareem Hunt Over 64.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
Kareem Hunt has picked up right where he left off upon his return to the Kansas City Chiefs. He has stepped in as the clear-cut top running back over the past four weeks, tallying 308 rushing yards and four touchdowns. Hunt has received 21 or more carries in each of the last three weeks and should be in line for a similar opportunity in this game.
While the Buccaneers have a better run defense than through the air, they are not overly threatening in this category either. Hunt has eclipsed 64.5 rushing yards in three of his four weeks with the Chiefs so far.
When considering the game script, the Chiefs have a real chance to turn this game into a blowout as Tampa Bay figures out the changes to the offense following the injuries. If this is the case, there will be even more opportunities for carries on Hunt’s plate. This also creates some value on the alternate lines such as the +150 odds of him running for 80 yards. For the sake of the article, we will stick to the standard prop of 64.5 rushing yards and Hunt should have plenty of opportunity to reach this total.
Baker Mayfield to have 40+ Pass Attempts (+280)
If there is one thing clear about Baker Mayfield, he is not afraid to let it fly. While he has matured both on and off the field throughout his NFL career, Mayfield still plays with a gunslinger’s attitude at the quarterback spot. The Buccaneers have leaned heavily on his talents and he ranks second in the league in passing yards per game and ninth in total pass attempts before playing tonight.
So far this season, Mayfield has thrown 40+ pass attempts in three of the eight games the Buccaneers have played. He has also attempted as many as 50 passes in a game already this season. While the game plan will be adjusted some based on the injuries, the Buccaneers are a pass-first team, ranking fifth in passing attempts and owning the most passing touchdowns of any team in the league.
Expect the Chiefs to take control of this game and for the Buccaneers to be forced to play from behind. Mayfield will be asked to make some magic happen and throw the ball often. Getting +280 odds for Mayfield to throw the ball 40+ times holds great value considering Tampa Bay’s style of play and the way this game could play out.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
