Week 10. It’s time to traverse into the pen and identify that magical hen, the one that lays golden DFS nuggets every now and then. Not the one giving election info like on CNN. Hopefully the knowledge is worth millions of yen, inducing us to get on our knees, reach to the heavens, then scream, amen! If you were to bink a Milly Maker, you’d probably be a born-again. Yeah, right. Who am I kidding?! We will always be DFS saracens, travelling from slate to slate in order to try and replicate the bink over and over again.
There are 10 games on the main slate. DraftKings Sportsbook has six games with an O/U of at least 45: PIT/WAS (46), ATL/NO (46.5), BUF/IND (47), MIN/JAX (46), SF/TB (48) and NYJ/ARI (46). There are two games with a total of 40 or below: NE/CHI (39.5) and TEN/LAC (38).
There are no double-digit spread favorites. KC is the largest favorite at -9 over DEN. There are three games within a field goal: WAS -2.5 over PIT, ATL -3 over NO and ARI -1 over NYJ. There are five home dogs: NO, IND, JAX, TB and DAL.
DISCLAIMER: This piece is written early in the week, so it won’t factor in injuries or lineup changes that occur closer to Sunday.
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Quarterback
Stud
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys ($7,800) – The floor/ceiling combo and recent form is just too much for me to ignore. Hurts has scored double-digit FPTS in every game this season, with at least 20 in each of the last four contests. He also has a high of 35.1 FPTS. Hurts does it with his arm. Hurts does it with his legs. Hurts gives sleepless nights to defensive coordinators. Despite getting stuffed on two Tush Pushes last week, Hurst still ended with 29.9 FPTS. He has scored eight rushing touchdowns and produces in close games and blowouts, which is well within the range of outcomes this week against a Dak-less Cowboys team.
Other Options – Josh Allen ($7,700), Jayden Daniels ($7,500), Sam Darnold ($6,200)
Value
Aaron Rodgers New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals ($5,700) – The Jets finally got into the win column last week after losing five straight. Is this the beginning of a hot streak for Rodgers and the offense? Could be. Let’s not forget that Rodgers is 40 years old and coming off Achilles surgery. It was going to take time to get back up to speed. In addition, he needed to build chemistry with Garrett Wilson, and now Davante Adams was brought into the mix. After getting some positivity from last week’s win, the matchup in Week 10 is a favorable one, as the Cardinals have allowed the third-most Pass EPA and are pressuring the quarterback at the fifth-lowest rate.
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Running Back
Stud
Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys ($8,300) – Show me the money! Barkley has received 27 and 22 carries over the last two games and he’s put up over 35 FPTS three times this season. The Eagles are touchdown-favorites over the Cowboys, so they should be in control of this game. Both Hurts and Barkley can have good games together. Dallas has allowed the most Rush EPA on the season by a wide margin.
Other Options – Alvin Kamara ($8,100), Christian McCaffrey ($8,000) if he starts, Bijan Robinson ($7,700), James Cook ($7,000)
Value
Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. San Francisco 49ers ($5,900) – White will get some carries, but his strength lies in the passing game. With Mike Evans and Chris Godwin out, his role in the passing game has been elevated. Last week, he hauled in five-of-six targets for 38 yards and a touchdown. The week prior, he caught all six targets for 71 yards and two touchdowns. This game has a hefty total of 48.5 points, with the 49ers favored by 5.5 points, so Tampa Bay will likely have to be aggressive in the passing game to remain competitive.
Other Options – Bucky Irving ($5,700)
Wide Receiver
Stud
Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings at Jacksonville Jaguars ($8,800) – Jefferson has put up at least 20 FPTS in all but two games this season. In the two most recent contests, he’s gone over 100 yards and 22 FPTS without scoring a touchdown. Now he gets a matchup against a Jaguars team that is allowing the most Pass EPA by a wide margin, while pressuring the quarterback at the fourth-lowest rate.
Other Options – Garrett Wilson ($7,200), Davante Adams ($7,000), Deebo Samuel ($6,900), Darnell Mooney ($6,500)
Value
Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs ($5,600) – The matchup isn’t great, as the Chiefs pass defense has been solid and this game will be in hostile territory. That said, the Chiefs pass defense is middle-of-the-pack in Pass EPA and Sutton has been the main target for Bo Nix. Over the last two games, Sutton has been peppered with 10 and 11 targets, resulting in over 20 FPTS in both contests.
Other Options – Khalil Shakir ($6,000), Calvin Ridley ($5,700), Ricky Pearsall ($4,400)
Tight End
Stud
Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles ($5,000) – The Eagles will likely be scoring points in this one, so Cooper Rush is going to have to pass, whether he wants to or not. CeeDee Lamb may be out due to a shoulder injury and the wide receiver depth chart is barren behind him. Ferguson could be the No. 1 target this week. In Week 9, Ferguson finished with seven receptions on 10 targets for 71 yards.
Other Options – Travis Kelce ($6,000), George Kittle ($5,800), Cade Otton ($5,500)
Value
Taysom Hill, New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons ($4,000) – Last week, Hill received five targets, catching four for 41 yards. He also rushed five times for 19 yards and scored a touchdown. And that is the allure for Hill because he gets high-quality touchdowns in the red zone. He faced the Falcons in Week 4 and rushed six times for 24 yards, scoring twice.
Other Options – Hunter Henry ($3,900)
Defense/Special Teams
Stud
Eagles DST at Dallas Cowboys ($3,500) – The Cowboys likely won’t have too much success on the ground this week. In addition, the Eagles offense may force Dallas out of its shell early. If so, then the unit can attack Cooper Rush relentlessly. Whether the unit does anything is another matter, as they have scored double-digit FPTS only once this season, but there should be plenty of opportunities in this one, and that’s all we can ask for.
Other Options – Chargers DST ($3,800), Vikings DST ($3,700)
Value
Jets DST at Arizona Cardinals ($2,900) – The Jets are fourth in pressure rate, second in sack rate and sixth in Pass EPA. I do think the Jets offense will have success and put up points, forcing Arizona to lean more towards the pass.
Other Options – Patriots DST ($2,500)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
