Couple of interesting systems are active in this Monday night matchup. But, we’ll get to those after we comb through the Chiefs vs. Buccaneers predictions that have already been made.
We’re going to examine the moneyline, spread and game total predictions being made for Chiefs vs. Buccaneers by taking stock of this game’s betting splits.
Game splits
Moneyline
No surprise to see the undefeated Chiefs are the public play in this one, despite carrying -410 odds to win. But even with 87% of the moneyline bets going toward a Kansas City win, the splits are more favorable to Tampa Bay (+320).
On just 13% of the moneyline bets, bettors backing the Bucs to win have accounted for 27% of the handle.
Spread
Things take an odd turn here.
Tampa is the popular play against the spread, accounting for 59% of the spread bets. However, those plays have only made up 44% of the handle.
So, while the Bucs seem like sharp moneyline play, the sharps seem to be leaning with KC when it comes to the spread.
When it comes to the spread’s movement, this has bumped up to 9-even from its opening line of 8. This spread has gone no lower than 7.5 and no higher than its current line.
Now, that movement does track with the splits for this spread. The sharp lean is with KC ATS, and the spread has increased. This makes it harder to join those who’ve already backed the Chiefs to cover, but it plays to the KC lean.
Total
After taking a slight dip from the opening 44.5 total to 44-even, this play has gone all the way up to 46, where it has continued to alternate back-and-forth with 45.5.
That upward movement very much tracks with the splits. This is a popular play with a slight sharp lean, accounting for 75% of the game-total handle on 73% of the game-total bets.
System to note
Off the top, this game provides a setting in which the over has hit often. An AFC team has hosted NFC teams 18 times this season. In those games, the over is 12-6.
Things get a bit more complicated when we take stock of a significant spread system that’s in play. As if the numbers surrounding this game’s spread weren’t already complex enough.
While the betting splits indicate Kansas City is the sharp play, NFC road dogs are 10-5-1 against the spread vs. AFC teams this season. Furthermore, Patrick Mahomes is only 4-4-1 against the spread as a home favorite vs. NFC teams since 2021.
Trends to note
On top of the spread system mentioned above, the Buccaneers have covered the spread in four straight vs. the AFC West.
To conclude this preview, here are some trends to consider before making your Chiefs vs. Buccaneers predictions:
- The Chiefs have won the first half as a home favorite vs. the NFC in nine straight.
- Samaje Perine has logged 11+ receiving yards vs. NFC teams in eight straight. (Receiving yards O/U is 7.5.)
- Rachaad White has logged at least 38 rushing yards in the last six games that Tampa was an underdog vs. an AFC team. (Rushing yards O/U is 27.5.)
- The Buccaneers have surrendered the game’s first touchdown in their last six road games against an AFC team.
- Mahomes has logged at least 22-plus rushing yards in his last four Monday games. (Rushing yards O/U is 19.5.)
- Noah Gray has logged 23+ receiving yards in four straight. (Receiving yards O/U is 22.5.)
- In the last four games following a loss, Baker Mayfield has logged at least 289 passing yards. (Passing yards O/U is 236.5.)
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
