Mix a helping of major-market splash with a slight sprinkle of head coach/superstar controversy, and you’ve got yourself a recipe for the 2024 Houston Rockets. Their superstar center, Alperen Sengun, and Jalen Green & co. face Jalen Brunson and the New York Knicks at home tonight.
Houston fans and Sengun backers everywhere are furrowing their brows right now at his play time. With that context in mind, I break down the Sengun prop I like most for tonight’s game against New York.
Best Alperen Sengun prop bet for Rockets vs. Knicks
Alperen Sengun 28+ Points + Rebounds (-120)
I don’t hate his PRA number of 32+ for -125, either, but this feels the safer play. Even though Sengun’s shown an impressive ability to deliver savvy passes in the paint for a few dimes per game. He’s averaging 4.3 per game, currently, so the market is right on target.
But I like 28 for just points and rebounds at a -120 price for #28 in Rocket-red. I think it’s the play.
Sengun is averaging just under this number through the Rockets’ first six games. Literally—just under: 27.0. He’s only eclipsed 28 points and rebounds twice to open the season.
How’s this for you numerology nuts out there: Sengun is also only averaging 28.2 minutes per game so far. That number is loaded with context. And it’s why we like this line tonight.
Alperen Şengün in the 4th this season:
Game 1: Benched with 4:52 left in the 4th (played last 3 seconds)
Game 2: Blowout win
Game 3: Benched the entire 4th (played last 11 seconds)
Game 4: Benched with 9:45 left in the 4th
Game 5: Benched with 1:44 left in the 4th
Game 6:… pic.twitter.com/C3RHCglQ0c
— Bradeaux (@BradeauxNBA) November 3, 2024
The two times he eclipsed 28 P+R (31 and 29) he played 32+ minutes and 35+ minutes, respectively.
There is speculation some of this benching is due to Sengun’s poor defense, but he’s +23 through six games. It’s not as if he’s been open runway. A lot of head-scratching at the above tweet.
However, I bet Sengun plays around 35-37 minutes tonight at home versus the New York Knicks. And if you give me that much time with him on the court, I’m backing this number confidently.
Bottom Line
Tighter leash, as they say, in Houston these days for young stars under HC Ime Udoka. And if that’s what it takes for this team to keep getting big wins, then we’ll just have to believe it’s in the interested of good coaching and proportionate discipline.
But! This 2024 Rockets team is taking on some sneaky major-market flavor with its close-call losses against the Spurs and the Warriors and convincing wins against (also) the Spurs and the Mavericks. NASA may be HQ’d down there, but there are more eyes telescoping on this Rockets team from around the country than, maybe, since the James Harden heydays.
I’m looking for a fourth-quarter-minutes total for Sengun that’s signals a loud-and-clear to the fan base from this organization about their most dynamic scorer.
The bet: Alperen Sengun 28+ Points + Rebounds (-120) for 1u
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is thegreatdansby9) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
