Week 9 of the NFL season is here, and with that comes plenty of opportunities to win some prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook. On Sunday, we have 13 games to choose from, followed by the Bucs and Chiefs on Monday Night Football. Below are some of my favorite prop bets for this weekend’s action.
OVER Picks
QB Patrick Mahomes Over 1.5 Pass TDs (-115)
Patrick Mahomes has only thrown for multiple pass touchdowns in three of his seven games so far this season, but this weekend is a great matchup for him. The Chiefs will host the Buccaneers on Monday night, and Tampa Bay has given up nine passing touchdowns in their last two games against Lamar Jackson and Kirk Cousins. The Buccaneers passing defense has been absolutely shredded lately, and here comes a three-time Super Bowl Champion.
In Week 7, Lamar Jackson was 17-22 for 281 yards and five passing touchdowns. Then last week, Kirk Cousins finished 23-29 for 276 yards and four touchdown throws. I like this recent trend to continue for the Bucs defense, and despite all the injuries at wide receiver for Kansas City, Mahomes will find a way to have a big night through the air.
WR A.J. Brown Over 76.5 Rec Yds (-125)
This line is simply not big enough for one of the best receivers in the game right now. Brown has played in four games this season and he has hit the over on this number each time. He is second in the NFL in receiving yards per game with 102, only trailing Nico Collins (113.4). Brown has also scored three touchdowns in those four games, which makes his (-105) anytime touchdown scorer odds tempting. However, I will stick with his over on the receiving yards instead, because Brown has just been too consistent in the pass game. He has at least five catches in every game so far this season, and his 19.4 yards per reception is third in the NFL.
To put the cherry on top, the Eagles are matched up against the second-worst pass defense in the league this week. The Jaguars give up 271.1 yards per game in the air. I would not be shocked if Brown finished with 100 or more yards this Sunday.
WR Justin Jefferson Over 84.5 Rec Yds (-115)
Jefferson has only hit the over on this number in four of his first seven games, but the matchup he has this weekend gives me confidence he will make it five out of eight games. The Vikings host the Colts on Sunday Night Football, and Indianapolis has struggled to contain the pass this year. They rank 24th in the NFL, conceding an average of 227.8 yards per game. Expect Sam Darnold and the Vikings to air the ball out, as they usually do.
After starting the season 5-0, the Vikings have dropped two in a row, and I expect this offense to be a big reason why they bounce back on Sunday night. Jefferson is averaging 92.3 receiving yards per game this season and he has a great matchup, so I think this total will end up being too low.
UNDER Picks
QB Daniel Jones Under 205.5 Pass Yds (-115)
Jones has gone under this total in four of eight games this season and is averaging 213.3 passing yards per game this season. This line seems like the perfect number for this week, but I am still taking the under in this spot because Jones will face a tougher test than most this Sunday.
The Commanders’ offense gets a lot of praise for their turnaround, but people fail to realize the improvement that their defense has made. Washington was horrific against the pass last year and is suddenly a top-six unit against the pass in 2024. They are only allowing 186.8 pass yards per game this season, well below the listed total. Jones and the Giants have their hands full this weekend against this secondary.
QB Dak Prescott Under 266.5 Pass Yds (-115)
This is not a knock against Dak, but I think this large total might be a little too much for him to get to. I do expect him to go over 200 passing yards, as he has in five of his seven games this season. However, he has only thrown for 267 or more on three occasions.
As for the matchup, Atlanta is pretty average against the pass, ranking 18th in the NFL. They allow 215.5 pass yards per game, so it would take a well below-average performance for Dak to hit this over. I would not be shocked if Dak and Dallas had some success in the air this Sunday, I just think this total is pretty overinflated.
WR Jaylen Waddle Under 4.5 Catches (-165)
Waddle has had a pretty disappointing 2024 by his standards, although his quarterback situation has had a lot to do with that. The Dolphins usually struggle against the Bills, especially in Buffalo, so I expect this offense to struggle more than people might think. Even though Tua is back, Waddle was still held under this total last week. On the season, he has only gone over this total in one of seven games. The Bills have a solid pass defense, ranking 13th in that category.
Five catches is a lot to ask for from someone who only has 36 targets this season, which is 70th in the NFL. His 26 receptions are tied for 61st most in the league. There just isn’t enough recent production from Waddle for me to trust him in this spot, I like the under here and I think the Dolphins offense could struggle mightly this Sunday.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is ciarandoyle77) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
