The Breeders’ Cup Classic is almost here, with the horse racing action set for Saturday from Del Mar.
Hall of Fame jockey Jerry Bailey joined Jordan Brenner and Peter Keating on the Underdogs podcast to preview Saturday’s race.
Bailey, of course, was part of one of the most historic underdog stories in horse racing history at the 1993 edition of the Breeders’ Cup Classic mounting Arcangues.
Bailey says typically jockeys have their mounts secured weeks, if not months, in advance, but 10 days before the big race he still had no mount for the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Luckily for Jerry, another jockey had two commitments and had to left Arcangues available for another rider to pick up. Thankfully, Arcangues’ trainer chose Bailey and the rest is history. Arcangues was a long shot at 133-to-1 odds, having never run on dirt and being an European horse. So, Arcangues was unproven on dirt and his form wasn’t all the great at the time. But the Breeders’ Cup races can have upsets because like football, on any given day any competitor can beat another competitor if they’re on because they’re all pretty good otherwise they wouldn’t be in this position. But Bailey says Arcangues took to the dirt pretty well and he says he was just of the mind that he was going to take this horse back in the pack, because European horses usually finish well, go to the rail and hope the he wasn’t embarrassingly last as he comes through the stretch. He said his strategy was to save a little bit so Arcangues would finish well down the stretch. And it was obvious to Bailey halfway through the race that Arcangues would run well. Arcangues was taking Bailey through the pack and when they hit the top of the stretch Bailey realized if they weren’t going win they were at least going to be close.
After talking about this amazing upset, Jordan asked Bailey about the rarity of recent upsets in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Jordan cites a statistic that notes the past nine winners have all had 5-to-1 odds or shorter with the median winnings odds since 1999 coming in at 4.4-to-1. So, why has this race been a struggle for underdogs and increasingly so?
Those statistics surprise Bailey because when you get to the Breeders’ Cup they’re all really good horses or they wouldn’t be there. He says there are so many overlays in these Breeders’ Cup races that good horses could get overlooked. When it comes to the Classic, it’s most speed and dirt, Bailey says, and that’s how most Classics are won. Foreign horses are thus at a distinct disadvantage because that’s typically not their style. Now, Bailey says that might not be the case this year as the Breeders’ Cup Classic features Japanese and European horses with speed, class and are in form and we saw a glimpse of that earlier this year in the Kentucky Derby with Forever Young coming within inches of winning the race in a photo finish. But, Bailey thinks the reason for the statistics that Jordan cited is because most American horses are speed-oriented on the dirt and perform very well, which eliminates the chances of some European or Japanese horses.
What does Bailey mean when he talks about “speed” horses? He says he’s talking about earlier speed, meaning from the gate they can take their early speed and carry it throughout the race. He also says a lot of it depends on the race track you’re on. This year the Breeders’ Cup Classic is at Del Mar in California. Bailey points out the track at Del Mar has hosted two Breeders’ Cup Classics and both those races were won gate-to-wire — horses with the most speed early were able to maintain their speed late in the race. Closers are at a disadvantage at Del Mar this year, Bailey said.
Given all that has been said, Peter wants to know: Could this be the year a Japanese horse breaks through at the Breeders’ Cup Classic? Bailey thinks there’s a very good chance it could happen, as Forever Young is mounted by Ryusei Sakai, who jokingly has proclaimed himself the Del Mar master but Bailey thinks could have the formula for this race track. Forever Young has been preparing for this type of speedy race that we’re going to see at Del Mar.
The favorite is City of Troy out of Ireland, who will be racing for the first time on dirt. How does Bailey assess City of Troy’s chances in this race? Bailey likes City of Troy. We’re talking about a grass horse that has never raced on dirt, but they’ve tried to simulate things with a practice race a month ago in England where City of Troy was forced to show early speed but did a really good job. Bailey says part of being effective on the front end with speed horses at Del Mar is breaking from the gate very, very quickly because if you don’t the horses around you can squeeze you and force you to the back and before you know it you get dirt in the face which can freak some horses out. Bailey thinks City of Troy has a great chance, but if they have an outer post they have a better chance of running their style if they do break slowly.
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Watch or listen to the whole show below and make sure to keep an eye on the Underdogs podcast feeds on Apple and Spotify as well as the Le Batard and Friends YouTube page for future episodes!
SHOW BREAKDOWN
In this special episode, the Underdogs are saddling up to help you choose the horses with the best odds of winning this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic. Helping Jordan and Peter break down the field? Hall of Fame jockey Jerry Bailey offers an inside scoop on his favorite horses — and takes us behind the scenes of his historic 133-to-1 long shot win at the 1993 Breeders’ Cup Classic.
Watch the full episode below!
VIDEO:
Be sure to check out more episodes of Underdogs on the Le Batard and Friends YouTube page and subscribe to the show on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts! You can also follow Peter on X at @PeterKeatingNJ and Jordan at @JordanBrenner.
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