GPPs are not won by using all of the most popular players on the slate. Being a contrarian in a big-field event can help separate your lineup, and gain you leverage over the field when some of the more popular names bust. The goal of this article won’t be to highlight the popular “play-it-safe” names that your Dad talks about at family dinner.
No. Us? We’re looking for some diamonds in the rough. Guys that no one talks about — not even their own coaches.
OK, we’re not going that deep, but you get the idea — lower ownership and high upside. We’re looking for players who we feel good about but still make us feel alive inside. That’s the goal.
Let’s dive into Week 9.
Be sure to set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: $2.75M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st]
Top DFS Stack
Game Stack: Bengals vs. Raiders
Joe Burrow ($6,900) – Ja’Marr Chase ($8,600) – Chase Brown ($5,900) – Brock Bowers ($6,000)
This is an expensive stack, but there is a lot of good value available this week already –– especially at WR –– and there could be more opening up after Friday as well (depending on which injured stars sit or play).
The main theme in this game is that we have two defenses and two passing games that tend to be very condensed around two elute receivers in Brock Bowers and Ja’Marr Chase. Bowers is in a fantastic matchup against a Bengals team that has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing TEs and has a weak cover safety in Vonn Bell (62nd in coverage grade amount safeties on PFF). The Bengals have now allowed four TDs to TEs over their last four games, making this a great time for Bowers to add to his suspiciously low TD total.
If we’re building around Bowers, then we should also be building around the premise that the Bengals will be able to move the ball and score at will in this game (pushing Bowers to his ceiling). That’s not a far-fetched scenario either as they’re playing the Raiders who are just 19th in EPA per play on defense and have allowed 26.3 points per game this season. While Gardner Minshew ($4,500) is a viable way to stack this game at QB, I’d venture that fewer DFS players will pay up for the pair of Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase just given their exorbitant salaries.
Chase is a TD machine who leads the league in receiving scores this season and has already combined for two games with 60 or more DKFP (with his QB) this season. I’d also expect this to be a good spot for Burrow to rebound, who has faced a couple of tough pass defenses in his last few starts, but gets a reprieve here against a Raiders team that doesn’t get much pressure (23rd in sacks per game).
With Tee Higgins still not practicing and listed as doubtful, I don’t mind getting creative and stacking the Bengals’ top duo with their other top offensive weapon in RB Chase Brown. Brown has taken over the main role carries for Cincinnati over the last couple of games, outrushing Zack Moss 27-11 over Week’s 7 and 8. The Raiders have also allowed nine TDs to RBs already, with two coming via the air.
Brown’s a solid play in his own right at under $6,000, but he does have some appeal as a secondary stacking option as well, as he’s a player I expect gets a slight bump in targets if Higgins misses and has the best matchup from a skill position-basis of any Bengals player in this game.
Quarterback
Bo Nix ($5,900)
I mentioned Bo Nix in this spot last week and he came through for 29.76 DKFP against a weaker Carolina defense. Certainly, the Ravens’ pass rush will be a tougher test for Nix, but the Ravens as a whole have been a great matchup for opposing QBs. Baltimore has allowed the third-most fantasy points against opposing QBs this season and ranks 28th in EPA per dropback.
Nix still makes some ill-advised throws and was certainly helped out last week by facing Carolina, but his floor from a fantasy perspective is also being held up by his rushing, which he didn’t even use/need last week to reach 29+ points. Baltimore’s own prowess on offense is something positive for Nix as well. If the Ravens can score against Denver’s elite defense then that will only push Nix into a more positive game flow for fantasy and heighten the possibility of a big day.
If you’re looking to use Nix again, 6’5 WR DeVaughn Vele, who is only $3,600 would be a great stacking target; against a Ravens secondary with injury and performance issues at corner.
Running Back
Higher End: Alvin Kamara ($7,800)
Kamara has been dealing with multiple injuries this season, including a broken hand. Perhaps some of that is what limited his usage last week to just 10 carries, but the Saints’ lead RB is likely to see an uptick in usage again in Week 9 with Kendre Miller now looking doubtful after missing two practices to start the week.
Kamara is also just going to get a huge boost from the Saints getting back Derek Carr under center, who led the Saints’ offense to some massive weeks early on. Kamara scored 22.0 or more DKFP three times in the first four weeks, and had a 47.0 point outing, during that stretch. With the Panthers’ horrific run defense (29th EPA per rush) this is a great time to buy back in on Kamara, who may get a ton of short fields to work with.
You’ll want to watch the injury report, but with Kamara seemingly getting a little healthier and Miller potentially missing, it looks like a Goldilocks scenario for Kamara, who may repeat his early season success in Week 9.
Lower End: Nick Chubb ($5,800)
Chubb’s first two games back were mostly uneventful. He only managed 3.3 yards per carry last week against the Ravens, but did handle 16 carries and was the Browns lead back inside the red zone. Having now had a couple of weeks to acclimatize to the NFL game environment, I do expect we’ll see some better performances from Chubb soon, making him someone to potentially buy low on this week in GPPs.
The Chargers are a solid defense but really excel against the pass where they’ve allowed just 5.9 yards per attempt over their last three games. Conversely, they have regressed a little against the run, and have now allowed 5.77 yards per carry to opposing RBs over their last three games. Chubb undoubtedly comes with risk, but his usage should be solid and if he can find the end zone this week, it may allow him to break out with a better game against a Chargers defense that has allowed a lot of yards on the ground of late.
Wide Receiver
Higher End: Cooper Kupp ($7,700)
With Puka Nacua picking up an injury in practice on Thursday and potentially either missing this week’s game against Seattle or being less than 100%, I don’t see any reason not to lean on Cooper Kupp in this spot, who remains affordable at under $8,000. Kupp did look like the secondary target for much of the Rams’ win over the Vikings, but his importance will only rise if Nukau can’t play a full complement of snaps.
Kupp is also just in a terrific matchup, in general, against a Seahawks secondary that got roasted by the Bills WRs last week and has now allowed seven TDs to opposing WRs over their last five games. Having had extra rest after playing last Thursday night, I don’t see any reason for the Rams not to gameplan around Kupp in this spot, who is certainly capable of earning 10+ targets in a game/matchup like this (and has in the past) and pushing to be top WR of the week.
Lower End: Jalen Coker ($3,600)
With Diontae Johnson now in Baltimore, this sets up as a prime spot for one of the Panthers’ young receivers to step up. Coker may be the less-ballyhooed rookie on the Carolina roster, but the undrafted free agent has outperformed all season and is in a great spot this week against a Saints pass defense that has regressed after a fast start, and will likely be without top corner Marshon Lattimore once again this Sunday.
New Orleans has now allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing WRs through eight weeks, and Coker seems likely to get more off coverage, regardless, with high draft pick Xavier Legette around to draw more attention downfield. With Coker flashing a season-high 18% target share last week (in a game where he had a big play called back on a penalty), this is the spot to buy in on the unheralded WR, who comes ultra cheap at under $4,000.
Tight End
Grant Calcaterra ($3,400)
With Dallas Goedert (questionable – leg) still not practicing as of Thursday, it seems likely the Eagles will start Grant Calcaterra at TE again. The 25-year-old has been an unlikely star for the Eagles of late, parlaying all eight of his targets over his last three games into 130 yards and eight catches. That’s great efficiency and it hasn’t gone unnoticed by Jalen Hurts ($7,800) who trusted him in some big spots against the Bengals.
There is no doubt that there is some risk involved, given that he’s playing behind two great WRs and could easily be in a poor game environment situation if the Jaguars get too far behind. However, the upside with Calcaterra is that he not only saves you money but also gives you solid leverage over lineups that include DeVonta Smith ($6,800) and AJ Brown ($8,100), who are both likely to be popular picks.
Either way, Calcaterra has proven to be an adept pass-catcher who has found a role in this Eagles offense. If he finds the end zone, he’ll have a shot to not only be one of the best values at TE this week (thanks to a low salary) but could be pivotal for winning big GPPs if the two Eagles WRs have down weeks alongside his big day.
Defense/Special Teams
Bears DST ($2,800)
The Bears are coming off a humiliating loss where they ceded a late Hail Mary TD, but still remain top unit in the league. They’ve averaged 9.9 DKFP this year as a DST and rank 4th in EPA per play, and seventh in sacks per game. Despite the gaudy stats, they’re very cheap this week at just $2,800 in a road game against Arizona.
The Cardinals aren’t necessarily the best matchup on paper, especially given Kyler Murray’s solid season (11 TDs vs 3 INTs), but they should be able to get pressure in this spot, and Murray has been prone to fumbles as a smaller QB, having already lost two on the season. This is more of a “vibes” play than anything –– just based on how focused the Bears should be after last week –– but the price makes a ton of sense. We rarely get an elite unit like Chicago this cheap at DST, and with them not likely to be too popular given the matchup, it’s a great time to buy the dip and build around them in Week 9.
Be sure to set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: $2.75M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st]
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