NFL Week 9 concludes with the Bucs traveling to Arrowhead Stadium to face the Chiefs on Monday Night Football. While Tampa Bay is a sizable dog in this primetime game, I’m looking to a player prop as my favorite play this week in NFL. Let’s breakdown why this is such a strong spot for Cade Otton.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Cade Otton OVER 47.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
2-units
Otton had been having a solid season at tight end for the Buccaneers, but we’ve seen a massive spike to his role in the passing game with all the injuries to the wide receiver room. Tampa played on MNF two weeks ago, in a game that saw both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin go down due to injuries.
After Evans’ early departure, it was clear that Baker Mayfield was going to feed Otton more throughout the game. While a matchup against a Baltimore defense allowing the most passing yards in the NFL was convenient, along with a positive game script, Otton finished the game with eight receptions for 100 yards on 10 targets.
Seeing that was enough for me to back Otton’s receiving prop against the Falcons last week, and he came through for us with ease. Otton finished that matchup turning another 10 targets into nine receptions for 81 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Despite some of the other receivers playing much more, the tight end has clearly earned the trust of Mayfield, and should continue to be heavily targeted.
I don’t think this yardage prop is adjusted nearly enough for the production we’ve seen from Otton the past two weeks, even if he was in an average matchup here. However, Otton is sitting on arguably the perfect combination of matchup and potential game script on Monday. Kansas City ranks dead last in yards allowed to the tight end position this season, giving up over 80 per game. Not to mention, as an underdog of more than a touchdown, the Bucs are likely going to be in position to continue slinging the ball throughout the game.
That sets up a fantastic spot to play Otton props on MNF, and likely also go after some plus-money alternate lines as well.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
