The Week 9 edition of Thursday Night Football sees the 6-2 Houston Texans travel to Metlife Stadium to take on the 2-6 New York Jets. The Jets are in free fall and are currently on a 5-game losing streak. Despite that, the Jets are currently 1.5-point favorites over the Texans on DraftKings Sportsbook.
There are far more ways to get involved in the action than just traditional betting. One of the more unique features on DraftKings this year is Pick6 Fantasy Football!
Texans at Jets Pick6 Plays
The Texans are at a very interesting point in their season. On paper, they are 6-2 and comfortably in control of their division after already beating the Colts head-to-head twice this season. However, their team is banged up at the moment. Stefon Diggs is out for the rest of the season and Nico Collins, Dameon Pierce, Jimmie Ward, and Azeez Al-Shaair will all be out for this game against the Jets. That leaves them depleted at receiver and thin on defense.
The Jets have been the most disappointing team in the NFL this season. The idea was that if Aaron Rodgers played at even a decent level with the team they had last season, this would be a playoff team and possibly even a contender. Rodgers has been about a league-average quarterback which is still an improvement over last year but the rest of the team has disappointed, mainly the special teams and the run defense. The Jets are an extreme longshot to make the postseason at this point but just to save their locker room from potentially fully collapsing they could really use a win here.
Here are my top Pick6 plays for the Thursday night AFC matchup.
Joe Mixon More Than 81.5 Rushing Yards
The Jets’ defense is 21st in the league in EPA/rush and 24th in rush success rate. They have been vulnerable on the ground all season and the Texans should come with a rush-heavy attack. With Diggs and Collins both out for this game against a good Jets secondary, OC Bobby Slowik should feed Mixon the ball all game. The normal backup RB for Houston, Dameon Pierce, is also out for this game so Mixon will have even fewer carries taken from his load than he normally would. The Texans will have to control the clock and the line of scrimmage in this game if they want to win and that starts with Mixon having a big game. Mixon has cleared this number in every game this season where he has played the full game and I expect him to do so again.
Breece Hall More Than 105.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
Breece Hall has been much more productive the last couple of weeks than he was earlier on in the season. Hall has averaged 133 rushing + receiving yards over his past three games. In two of those games Hall did most of his work on the ground but he had over 100 receiving yards against Pittsburgh. It’s hard to predict whether Hall will find his explosive plays in the running game or passing game so this combination number is the safer pick. Hall has gotten a similar number of carries to rookie RB Braelon Allen the last couple of weeks but Hall’s numbers have been much better so look for him to get a bigger share of the carries this week as well.
Garrett Wilson More Than 61.5 Receiving Yards
Garrett Wilson has been consistently putting up big numbers this season despite the Jets’ struggles. Wilson is averaging nearly eight catches and 95.5 yards per game over his last four games. Despite the arrival of Davante Adams, Wilson is still Aaron Rodgers’ top target. In fact, Wilson leads the entire NFL in targets this season. The Texans have a good defense but they have had issues giving explosive passes this season. Other top receivers like Justin Jefferson, Brian Thomas Jr., Demario Douglas, Romeo Doubs, and multiple Colts receivers have gone over this number against the Texans this season, partially due to one or two big plays. Wilson should catch a lot of balls in this game and get good YAC as he always does.
Joe Mixon o0.5 Rushing + Receiving Touchdowns
The Texans are depleted at wide receiver so when they get red zone and goal-to-go opportunities they should give the ball to their reliable running back rather than make CJ Stroud force the ball to less trustworthy wide receivers, especially against a good Jets’ secondary. Mixon has six total touchdowns in the four games he has played in full this season. The Jets have been vulnerable against the run this season and Mixon should exploit that in goal-line situations, especially with Dameon Pierce out for this game.
Ka’imi Fairbairn More Than 7.5 Kicking Points
Fairbairn has been one of the best kickers in the league this season. He is 19/21 on FGs and 17/17 on XPs, including being 9/10 on 50+ yarders. The Jets’ defense hasn’t been elite this year on a down-to-down basis. However, with the Texans missing key weapons at the wide receiver position, the Jets’ defense can sell out to stop Joe Mixon in the red zone. Mixon will likely get in the end zone at least once against the Jets but the Texans will likely have multiple possessions that stall out because of issues at wide receiver. Fairbairn is so reliable and in what could be a lower-scoring game, DeMeco Ryans should be conservative and use his kicker rather than go for any fourth-down conversions.
CJ Stroud More Than 0.5 Interceptions Thrown
CJ Stroud is not playing at as high of a level as he did last year, despite the Texans’ team success. He ranks 21st among qualified in EPA+CPOE composite. Stroud has four interceptions across eight games this season but has seven turnover-worthy plays. That means he could be due for some negative regression where some bad throws turn into interceptions. The Jets’ secondary is returning closer to full strength with DJ Reed and Michael Carter both back on the field to join Sauce Gardner. Stroud played against this Jets secondary on the road last season for one of the worst games of his career, throwing for only 91 yards. He could be forced into a mistake in this game with the Jets desperate for a spark on defense.
What is DraftKings Pick6?
Pick6 is a peer-to-peer fantasy variant where you build a lineup (your “Pick Set”) of two or more players and select whether you believe each will outperform their listed stat projection. Enter your Pick Set in Pick6 contests to compete against other users. Get enough picks correct and win a share of cash prizes.
How to Play DraftKings Pick6
Create a Pick Set
Create a Pick Set by choosing two or more players from the same sport and Pick Group (a set of picks available from a group of set competitions). For each player, simply select if you think they’ll have more or less than their listed stat projection. In each Pick Set, you cannot pick the same player twice and you must pick players from at least two different teams.
Enter an Amount
Once you finalize your Pick Set, choose your entry fee amount. Your entries will be automatically distributed into available contests, subject to your confirmation.
Sweat Your Picks
When the games go live, use the My Picks tab to follow your picks in real time to track how your players are performing against their projections and how they stack up against other users.
Compete for Prizes
Make enough correct picks and win a share of the contests’ guaranteed prizes. Any prizes won will be credited to your DraftKings account after contests are finalized.
Play at DraftKings Pick6 or by downloading the DraftKings Pick6 app on Apple or Google!
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is blakekrass) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and cannot access any non-public information.
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