NFL Week 9 gets underway with the 6-2 Texans visiting the 2-6 Jets. If you thought last week’s Thursday Night Football between the Vikings and Rams was a “Pros vs. Joes” game, wait until you see what the betting splits wind up being for this one. Yes, the six-win Texans are underdogs at the two-win Jets. You go figure that one out, and good luck picking the right side.
Instead, I’ll be looking to a player prop on a guy who the Houston offense has leaned on when healthy this season. And this sets up as the perfect spot to continue riding him into Week 9.
Houston Texans at New York Jets
Joe Mixon OVER 81.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
1-unit
Mixon suffered an injury after just nine carries back in Week 2, and it caused him to miss three games. That means he has started and finished just four games this season, but when he has done so, Mixon has been an absolute savage in his first year in the Houston backfield.
Mixon has ripped off at least 102 rushing yards and a touchdown in each of those four games, and his usage when he’s healthy has been off the charts. Obviously, his game was cut short when he was injured, and in his first game back, the Texans only gave him 13 carries. That didn’t matter, as Mixon still rushed for 102 yards in New England.
In the other three games he’s played this season, Mixon has carried the ball at least 25 times, and is averaging over 125 rushing yards in those outings. Maybe the Jets do wind up being the sharp side of this game, but stopping the run has not been their strong suit this season. New York is giving up over 125 rushing yards per game, and we know Houston is going to be looking to exploit that.
C.J. Stroud is a stud, but keep in mind that the Texas will remain without Nico Collins, and just lost Stefon Diggs for the season to a torn ACL on Sunday. Tank Dell and Dalton Schultz will be among the names to step up, but without your top-two receivers on a short week, one way to try and cover up the problem is by simply pounding the rock with Mixon. It’s a high number, but with good reason, I’ll back Mixon’s rushing yardage over.
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