Houston, we have some problems, as the Texans lost another wide receiver in Week 8. Stefon Diggs tore his ACL and is done for the season. Alpha Nico Collins has been out since Week 5, and while he could return in Week 10, that does nothing for them this week.
That said, there is still talent on the offensive side of the ball and the defense has been playing well. The unit has allowed more than 22 points only once, and that was in the opener when the Colts put up 27 points. The defense is sixth in Pass EPA. While the rush defense has allowed the 10th-highest Rush EPA, that number is still only 1.0, and their success rate of 39.3% is middle-of-the-pack.
If there are problems in Houston, then there are PROBLEMS in NYC. The Jets have lost five straight and have exceeded 20 points on offense only twice, with a season-high of 22! Aaron Rodgers is 23rd in Pass EPA. He’s thrown seven interceptions, been sacked 18 times and is averaging a paltry 6.41 yards per attempt.
The Texans blitz at the ninth-highest rate and are top of the league in quarterback pressure rate. Rodgers has a 68.4 quarterback rating when pressured and is completing only 48.2% of his passes, good for a Total EPA of -25.8.
The Jets do have a good defense with excellent cornerbacks. The unit is ninth in Pass EPA.
Both run defenses can and have been exploited. New York has allowed 10 rushing touchdowns while Houston has allowed 4.7 yards per carry.
DraftKings Sportsbook has the Jets as -1.5 favorites at home with the game total at 42.
As for Wednesday’s injury report, WR Allen Lazard (chest) is the only notable offensive player out. LB CJ Mosley (neck) is out. Stay informed on the most recent updates at DK LIVE.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.25M Spooky Showdown [$300K to 1st] (HOU @ NYJ)
Captain’s Picks
Joe Mixon ($16,500 CP): Mixon has low-key been one of the best running backs this season. He did miss three games due to injury, so “out of sight, out of mind,” I guess. He’s scored at least 26 FPTS in four of the five games he’s played. Over the last two contests, he received 25 carries, exceeded 100 yards and scored a touchdown in both games, with two rushing touchdowns against Green Bay.
While he hasn’t been a hero in the passing game, he hasn’t been a zero either, garnering nine targets and hauling in six for 41 yards. The strength of the Jets defense is their secondary and, with all the injuries and likely game script, I think the Texans lean on Mixon once again.
UTIL Plays
Breece Hall ($10,400): The Jets are fourth in passing rate. With the acquisition of Davante Adams, I think they remain among the league leaders. Hall has not received over 18 carries in any contest this season, but he is often utilized in the passing game. Last week, though, he only caught one of three targets for nine yards. In the two prior games, he received nine and six targets, converting those into six and five receptions for 103 and 56 yards. Hall has gone over 20 FPTS three times this season. He also has 19 red zone opportunites, the most among skill position players on the Jets.
John Metchie III ($2,800): Metchie was $200 last week! While he’s priced up this week, he is still cheap. With Diggs out, Metchie moves up the totem pole. Last week, he tied Tank Dell with four targets. He also had two red zone looks.
Ka’imi Fairbairn ($5,200): There have been only two games in which Fairbairn has not had at least two field goal opportunities. He’s scored double-digit FPTS in each of the last four games and has six total double-digit performances on the season. He should get plenty of chances in this one.
Fades
C.J. Stroud ($10,000): Stroud is the third-highest priced player, yet he’s exceeded 20 FTPS only twice this season, is now down his top two wide receivers, and faces a defense that is good at defending the pass. No thank you. Last week against the Colts, Stroud threw 37 times for 285 yards and a touchdown, yet only produced 13.4 FPTS.
THE OUTCOME
I think this game is a close, competitive affair. Rushes, punts, field goals and field position… how exciting! I don’t think the Jets will be this bad all season, and it’s probably prudent to make a lineup focused on the Jets passing attack since the Texans blitz so much, but I’m leaning more towards the boring game script. The competency advantage is slightly in favor of the Texans at the moment.
Final Score: Texans 20, Jets 16
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.25M Spooky Showdown [$300K to 1st] (HOU @ NYJ)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
