Let’s start with Jordan Love’s injury status. Green Bay’s newest franchise quarterback left last Sunday’s game vs. the Jaguars with an apparent groin injury, but reports on Monday revealed the injury shouldn’t be too serious.
Love was not seen practicing on Wednesday, per ESPN’s Rob Demovsky, but it’s not time to hit the panic button yet as Wednesday’s injury report isn’t the most important one for a Sunday matchup.
That being said, if Love is not under center vs. the Lions, Malik Willis will start at QB, changing the flow of the offense. If this is the case, can you trust any of the Packers wide receivers to put up solid fantasy performance? Lets dive in.
The Packers’ wide receiver conundrum from a fantasy perspective is one of my favorites. While guys like Christian Watson and Dontayvion Wicks are often in the conversation, Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs have pulled in the first and second most receptions on the team, respectively, with tight end Tucker Kraft right behind. Reed is currently averaging 15.3 DraftKings FPTS per game with two high-end performances of 30+ in Weeks one and four. Doubs is averaging 10.9 FPTS per game and remains a boom-or-bust deep threat guy, having run the most routes on the squad.
Despite Reed only pulling in two receptions on three targets in Week 8, he is still a must-start either as a WR2 or FLEX spot, even if Love doesn’t play. According to Next Gen Stats, Reed has caught 6 of 8 targets on vertical routes run from the slot for 234 of his 366 total receiving yards and two scores. On the flip side, Detroit’s defense has allowed the 3rd-most yards (286) on 21 slot vertical route targets faced this season, which is tied for the 2nd-most such targets faced this season.
Don’t tread on Malik Willis, either. In the three games he’s played this season with more than one pass attempt—forget Week 1 vs. the Eagles—Willis is 3-0 with three TDs and zero picks. He also has totaled +14.1 EPA on passes thrown past the sticks (8/13, 182 yards, 1TD), which is more than 10 qualified QBs, including Jordan Love (+4.8). Willis has also only been sacked one time when facing the blitz, completing 9/14 passes for 97 yards and 2 touchdowns. Why is this important? The Lions defense has blitzed on a league-high 46.1% of opposing dropbacks since Week 7, allowing the 6th-lowest success rate (39.5%) on the blitz in that time frame. The Packers’ backup QB has converted seven first downs on 19 dropbacks against the blitz, meaning three-and-outs against a daunting Lions defensive line are not promised.
58% of Reed’s receptions have come out of the slot, vs. 81% of Doubs’ receptions have come out wide. In his last game starting at QB, Willis completed 52.6% of pass attempts to the slot receiver (7/10). It’s also worth mentioning that in Weeks two and three with Love out, Doubs was only targeted a total of five times for a whopping 12 FPTS. In a matchup that favors the slot, I am liking Reed more than Romeo Doubs.
Short answer, trust Reed, but be weary of Doubs unless you are in a deep league or want a cheeper receiver to fill a flex spot in daily fantasy.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
