Let’s breakdown some of the top matchups this weekend in College Football and dish out some best bets for the games.
Ohio State at Penn State UNDER 47.5 (-110) – 1.5-units
I put this play out on Twitter on Monday, and we’ve since seen the under continue to take money. Last year when these teams met, we saw a 20-12 final in favor of the Buckeyes, and both defenses are even better this season. Ohio State can put up points when it needs to, but this is a tough road game that likely won’t present any opportunities for either side to run it up.
The Buckeyes are off a narrow 21-17 victory over Nebraska, while the Nittany Lions got a nice road win at Wisconsin, but may have lost their quarterback in the process. If Drew Allar does play, he’ll likely be dinged up, but I’m expecting Beau Pribula under center on Saturday. Ohio State ranks second in the nation in points per game allowed at 11.9. Penn State ranks seventh in the nation, allowing 14.3 points per game. These are solid offenses, but the defenses are the strong suite on both sides of this one. I expect to see some classic Big Ten football between two teams and coaches with a ton of familiarity in a game that means a ton. Play on the under down to 44.5. I might get involved in some first half under as well.
USC at Washington +3 (-110) – 1.5-units
This was the first play I made this week, and I thought there was a chance Washington could be favored in this game. It has since ticked down to the Huskies +2.5, but I would play to a pick’em. Both of these teams are very good passing the ball, with USC ranked 16th in passing yards per game, and Washington ranked 21st. Let’s call that a wash. But the Huskies should be in a much better position to stop the Trojans from moving the ball.
Washington has the top-ranked pass defense in terms of yards per game allowed, giving up just 126.7 yards per game, including less than 100 per game at home. And that’s exactly where this game will be played, where I feel Washington has a tremendous home field advantage — as we saw in the win over Michigan. USC somehow hasn’t made the trip to Seattle in five years, despite both playing in the PAC-12, but it was a game the home team took down a top-25 Trojans squad by a score of 28-14. I trust the Huskies to have advantages both coaching and on defense here at home.
Pittsburgh at SMU -7 (-110) – 1-unit
Yup, we’re going to lay a touchdown against an undefeated team. Pitt continues to roll, but what have we actually seen from the Panthers on the road? They pulled out an absolute miracle victory over Cincy back in Week 2, and then handled a UNC team that’s wildly underperformed this season. Now they have to go to unfamiliar territory in Texas to play a SMU team that’s hitting its stride.
The Mustangs got off to a very slow start to the season, but their lone loss to BYU is aging very well. In two home games since then, SMU dropped 66 on TCU and 42 on FSU. Get this — the Mustangs have been on the road ever since! SMU has played three straight away from home, beating Louisville, Stanford and Duke. This sets up a nice home coming for a big game in the ACC. I think this sets up as the spot everything catches up to Pitt, while SMU can open this one up while playing at home for the first time since September.
Memphis at UTSA OVER 60.5 (-110) – 1-unit
Two teams that rank near the top of the country in plays per game square off here, and that should lead to some points. UTSA’s defense has been dreadful, ranking 120th in the nation in points per game allowed with close to 36. That puts a high-powered Memphis offense in a good spot, already ranking 27th in the country with over 33 points per game. Look for the Tiger to put up a big number here, and UTSA, who did drop 45 last week, to do its part to try and keep up.
North Carolina ML (-130) at Florida State – 1-unit
This is a very public play, as our betting splits on DK Network will tell you. I just can’t get there with this FSU team. I’ve successfully faded the Seminoles a handful of times early in the season, and even backed them in their lone win over Cal — although they probably should’ve come up short in that one too. UNC has had some really tough losses this season, but did get on track and look good last week with a 41-14 win at Virginia. FSU has been the perfect team to keep momentum going against this season, and I think the Tar Heels can do just that.
Wisconsin at Iowa -3 (-110) – 1-unit
This is a pretty big one shaping up in the Big Ten. It could be an ugly one to watch at times, which is just the way the Hawkeyes want it. Wisconsin has settled in nicely after losing its quarterback for the season, and had a chance last Saturday night against Penn State. Now the Badgers have to go on the road, where Iowa has been really good this season. For as much as the Hawkeyes struggle offensively, they have managed to drop 40 points in each of their last two home games — a 24-point win over Washington and 26-point win over Northwestern. I like Iowa to get another one at home here, and if it’s close at halftime, might look to add. The Hawkeyes have been superb at home in the second half, breaking some close games open after a trip to the locker room.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
