College basketball is here, and much like handicapping futures markets for college football this season, betting conference winners gets more difficult. With the PAC-12 disbanding, some of the best teams in the country have dispersed out to different conference, making them even larger and more competitive. That’s the case with the Big Ten here, which had Purdue go to the National Championship game last season, and now welcomes in a traditional power house in UCLA. This is now a whopping 18-team conference with the other additions of Oregon, USC and Washington.
While all eyes are on teams like Purdue, UCLA and Michigan State, I think the Hoosiers are being slept on here in the new Big Ten. Let’s breakdown some college basketball predictions on why a big season could be ahead for Indiana.
Big Ten Regular Season Conference Winner: Indiana (+650) – 1-unit
I mentioned the stiff competition in the Big Ten this season, but I have Indiana pegged as the most talented of the bunch. Purdue returns a great backcourt, but the loss of Zach Edey is going to set the Boilermakers back. UCLA also lost some key bigs and will have a lot of trips out east for tough games. Michigan State is overrated in my opinion and a good Illinois team lost way too much talent.
Meanwhile, Indiana has the perfect mix of returning core pieces, and bringing in some extremely impactful transfers. The two significant losses were big man Ke’lel Ware (a first-round pick by the Heat) and Xavier Johnson (a trusty senior point guard). But those two positions were directly addressed in the transfer portal, and you could make the argument the Hoosiers upgraded. The loss of the PAC-12 really benefited this Indiana team, bringing in 7-footer Oumar Ballo from Arizona, point guard Myles Rice from Washington State, and highly touted Kanaan Carlyle from Stanford.
Ballo averaged a double-double for the Wildcats last season, also blocking 1.3 shots per game. He’s a true center that can dominate the paint, and they have a legitimate shot-blocking backup for him in Dallas James. With Edey out of the conference, Indiana should have the dominant paint players to give the opposition fits.
Rice averaged 14.8 points, 3.8 assists and 3.1 rebounds as the starting point guard for Washington State, and should take a huge jump this season. The reigning PAC-12 Freshman of the Year will be the engine that makes the Hoosiers go this season, and is a very trustworthy option to hand the keys to. He dropped 20 points in an exhibition against Tennessee (more on that later), and was arguably the best player on the floor.
Carlyle was streaky for Stanford as a freshman, averaging 11.5 points, while being used as a starter and a bench player. However, the superstar potential is clearly there, as Carlyle went for individual efforts of 28 points against Arizona and 31 against Wazzu — both primetime games against the best teams in the conference.
Combine those talents with returning stars in Trey Galloway (now healthy off a knee injury), Mackenzie Mgbako and Malik Reneau, and the Hoosiers are onto something. Mike Woodson is a bit old school as a coach, so I’d like to see Indiana attempt more 3-pointers this season after ranking near the bottom of the country in attempts last season. But I trust Rice to run this offense, and Ballo to dominate the paint. Indiana did get a transfer from within the conference that should help the shooting issues, as senior Luke Goode shot nearly 40% from deep last season at Illinois.
It’s really hard to find plays to win these conferences with how large they are these days, not to mention, we know so little about the teams prior to the games. But Indiana got an huge road win over Tennessee (ranked No. 12 overall) in a scrimmage on October 27, which is a pretty impressive indicator. At +650, I can’t deny the talent on this roster. Should be a terrific season for the Hoosiers on the hardwood.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
