There’s a season-long system with a relatively small sample size — but a high hit rate — that supports one of the leans we see with the splits for Week 8’s MNF game. But, we’re getting ahead of ourselves.
Let’s take a look at the predictions being made for Steelers vs. Giants and how the moneyline, spread and game total betting splits have come together.
Game splits
Moneyline
No surprise to see the 5-2 Steelers are -278 moneyline favorites vs. the 2-5 Giants (+225). Similarly, it’s not exactly surprising to see Pittsburgh is the public’s moneyline play.
Ninety-three percent of the moneyline picks for Steelers vs. Giants have been cast in the Steelers’ favor. Those plays have accounted for 90% of the moneyline handle, which means Pittsburgh isn’t the sharp play. Now, 10% of the handle on 7% of the bets isn’t the largest lean we’ve seen, but it’s definitely worth noting as we look to the spread next.
Spread
The Giants are still the less popular play at just 17% of the spread bets. However, they’ve also seen 23% of the spread handle — indicating more of a sharp lean on this play.
As for the spread’s movement, this opened at 3.5 and climbed all the way up to 6.5 before settling back in at 6-even. There isn’t an extra edge here, given the movement tracks with how the Steelers vs. Giants spread predictions have gone largely in Pittsburgh’s direction.
Total
This has bounced around a little bit, but the bounces have been small. The opening game total of 37.5 was the peak, and 36-even was the bottom so far. Right now, it’s fluctuating between 36.5 and 36.
Although minimal, the downward movement of the game total tracks with the splits. Under bets have accounted for 40% of the game-total handle on just 27% of the game-total bets, which is quite the lean.
System to note
Time to make good on that note earlier.
The spread betting splits indicate a sharp lean toward the Giants covering on Monday. On top of that, the road team in non-conference games are 22-12-2 against the spread this season.
But break it down further, and we see that there’s a lean in a certain direction. NFC teams are 8-2-2 against the spread when playing on the road against an AFC team.
Trends to note
On top of the system above, Pittsburgh has failed to cover in four straight vs. NFC East teams. But, that’s not the only trend we’ve got.
To conclude this preview, here are some trends to consider before making your Steelers vs. Giants predictions:
- The Steelers have scored the first touchdown at home vs. the NFC East in seven straight.
- Najee Harris has logged 14-plus receiving yards in the last five games that Pittsburgh was a home favorite. (Receiving yards O/U is 10.5.)
- The last four games in which Russell Wilson was coming off a win, he scored a touchdown.
- The Steelers have lost the first half when playing as a home favorite in four straight.
- Wilson has 16-plus rushing yards in each of his last four games against NFC opponents. (Rushing yards O/U is 15.5.)
- Wilson has logged 223-plus passing yards in his last four games. (Passing yards O/U is 200.5.)
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
