With an 11-game Monday evening slate, it’s a busy night for basketball. There are a number of notable matchups including the the Celtics and Bucks facing off in a potential playoff preview and the Suns and Lakers squaring off in the late slate.
We are still in the extremely early portions of the season and the hierarchy of the league is still being established. While you can check out each matchup on DraftKings Sportsbook, here are my favorite player props on the October 28th slate.
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 1.5 Made Three-Pointers (-154)
The New York Knicks are set to face off with the Cleveland Cavaliers in their biggest test thus far with the new-look roster. This is the type of matchup in which Towns will show his value and impact.
Cleveland continues to start the frontcourt of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. The duo makes up one of the best interior defenses in the NBA, which could limit Jalen Brunson’s ability to attack the paint. Allen, a center, can struggle when switched onto the perimeter. This is where Towns will be a huge asset to the Knicks.
Look for New York to make a clear effort to spread the floor with Towns being the driving force of this. The former number one overall pick and self-proclaimed ‘best big man shooter of all time’ has yet to be fully unleashed in a Knicks uniform. Towns was held to just 12 points in the opening game and 21 points in game two. He also has attempted just four total shots from beyond the arc thus far, making three of these.
Looking at his career totals, Towns averages 4.3 three-point attempts per game and has shot as many as 7.9 long-range attempts per game in a season. This ability to stretch the floor is the exact reason why he was brought to New York. With a matchup with opportunity and Towns due for his Big Apple breakout, expect tonight to be the night. For the sake of the article, we are locking in over 1.5 three-pointers made at -154 odds, but I also like the value of three or more made three-pointers at +190 odds.
Alperen Şengün Under 17.5 Points (-105)
The Houston Rockets are set to face off against the San Antonio Spurs for the second time in three days. The Spurs got the better of the Rockets in the first matchup producing a 109-106 victory.
One of the largest reasons for the team’s struggles was Alperen Şengün’s failure to have just about any offensive impact. He was held to just six points on 2-8 shooting and was limited to 22 minutes of game play. This is a tough matchup for Şengün, who is notably bothered by Victor Wembanyama’s 7-foot-4 frame and 8-foot wingspan. The Defensive Player of the Year favorite is a constant threat to block shots and was able to limit Şengün’s post-oriented attack.
While I expect Şengün to have a better performance than the previous matchup, 17.5 points is too lofty of a number when considering Wembanyama’s presence. Expect his opportunity to be a bit limited once again, but for better statistical outputs to occur for Şengün moving forward.
Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 38.5 Points & Rebounds (-110)
The Milwaukee Bucks are the next team looking to put a stop to the Boston Celtics’ near-perfect start to the season. The defending champions look as hungry as ever and have only built on the style of play which won them a title — leaning further into their three-pointer-oriented attack. After an impressive opening victory over the Philadelphia 76ers, the Bucks have dropped back-to-back games against the Bulls and Nets. It will take a strong performance for them to get back on track, especially when considering the opponenet.
As is often the case with the Bucks, Giannis Antetokounmpo will be at the epicenter of everything they do. Through the opening three games, he is averaging 28.3 points, 12.3 rebounds, and 6.3 assists per game. Antetokounmpo has eclipsed 38.5 points and rebounds in two-of-three games thus far and this is a solid matchup for Giannis to add another.
The Celtics play a perimeter-oriented style of play and spread the floor offensively. Expect the Greek Freak to be able to lead this game in rebounding, which he has done in all three of his appearances thus far. While Al Horford is still playing an impressive level of basketball, the 38-year-old will not be able to match Antetokounmpo’s level of physicality when he attacks the paint. The two-time MVP is at his best when the lights are brightest and will be prepared for a strong performance. His size and physicality will cause issues in this game, so expect Giannis to eclipse 38.5 combined points and rebounds in this matchup.
Nikola Jokic Most Points in Nuggets vs Raptors (-135)
The Denver Nuggets are set to face off with the Toronto Raptors and are still in search of their first win. Denver is figuring out how to maximize their new-look roster, and it may involve Jokic being forced into more of a score-first role than he prefers to play.
During the opening game, Jokic tallied 16 points, 13 assists, and 12 rebounds. Following a 15-point loss to the Thunder, Jokic pointed out to the media that the roster is not overloaded with strong shooters and took it upon himself to come out in attack mode. While it did not translate to a victory, Jokic scored 41 points against the Clippers in his second game, attempting 26 shots, 12 of which came from beyond the three-point line.
As the Nuggets search for their first win, expect Jokic to approach this game in attack mode as well. He is the team’s best option on offense and will need to produce at a high level tonight.
Jokic eclipsed 30 points in both matchups against Toronto last season, so my initial thought process went toward his over 29.5 point prop in this game. However, look towards Jokic to be the leading scorer at -135 odds for some additional security. The next-highest point prop in the game is Jamal Murray with a line of 21.5, while Toronto does not have many threats to score near the three-time MVP’s level. Expect him to lead the game in scoring once again and capitalize on the -135 odds for this to occur.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
