This is a new article here on DK Network to hopefully give the bettors a look behind the book at the most heavily bet NBA player props of the night by ticket count. It indicates which props bettors are most interested in for that slate of games, and I’ll try and offer some analysis as to why (or analysis as to why you should be careful). Please keep in mind that betting the NBA is an ever-changing market, and that injury news closer to tip could always take one of these players off the board, or change other props that become more heavily bet close to tipoff.
Jalen Brunson UNDER 7.5 Assists (-135)
Brunson has just seven total assists on the season through two games, so it makes sense that bettors feel this number is way too high. While Brunson doesn’t have the numbers early in the season, it is a bit flukey. Both Knicks games have been blowouts, and with a tight spread against Cleveland, Brunson could see more minutes.
Jalen Green OVER 21.5 Points (-120)
Green signed a big extension prior to the season, and he’s living up to the hype through three games. Averaging 26.3 points per game, Green has topped 21.5 points in each game so far. He’s getting tremendous volume on the offensive side, attempting 22 shots per game (11 of them from downtown), while getting to the free throw line 5.7 times per game. Expect the public to keep backing this one.
Zach LaVine OVER 20.5 Points (-125)
Like Green, LaVine has gone over this number in all three games he’s played, and is averaging 24.7 points. I’d prefer backing Green because of the volume of shots he’s getting in Houston’s offense. LaVine is a great player, but he’s taking just about 15 shots per game, but shooting a scorching 55.6%. If he cools off, the production will drop off some eventually.
Kyrie Irving OVER 29.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists (-120)
Irving has stayed under this in both games so far this season, yet the number has been bet up to 30.5. Irving isn’t shooting well from the field, so a bounce-back night could help get him there. But playing alongside Luka Doncic does take away a lot of Irving’s playmaking opportunities, averaging just 3.5 assists so far this season.
Damian Lillard OVER 22.5 Points (-115)
After scoring 30 and 28 points in his first two games of the season, Lillard had just 21 in Brooklyn on Sunday. It was Dame’s first poor shooting night of the season, but bettors are banking on a bounce-back on the second leg of a back-to-back. Dame averaged 23 points in four games against the Celtics last season, going 2-2 to the over on 22.5. He’ll be dealing with a tough matchup in Jrue Holiday and Derrick White.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
