After a surprising scare on Saturday night in Detroit, the Celtics improved to 3-0 on the season. They’ll return to Boston and welcome in the Bucks for a good early measuring stick for both teams. The Celtics have been machine-like in the early going, while the Bucks are on the second night of a back-to-back, getting upset by the Nets on Sunday. That led to an opener of the Celtics laying 9.5 points at home here, which is a huge number.
I’m going away from a side here, though, as the Celtics have some really interesting trends to consider backing in this game. Here are the two I’m betting, along with some analysis on just how dominant they have been.
Celtics 1H Team Total OVER 61.5 (-105) – 1-unit
Ever since this team turned the corner in about February of 2022 and went to the NBA Finals against the Warriors, the first half team total has been a wagon of a betting trend. It’s gotten better each season, and has been particularly strong at home — especially as a big favorite. This season, the Celtics are off to an even stronger start to their first half scoring binge.
The Celtics are averaging over 70 points in the first half, with a season-low of 64 against the Wizards. Boston dropped 74 on the Knicks in its only home game so far this season, and returns home for another big game here. After cashing in for 73 in the first half on Saturday in Detroit, let’s keep rising this 3-0 trend until the wheels fall off. We’ll lose some along the way, but this is pretty close to an auto-play for me at the moment.
Jayson Tatum 1Q Points OVER 8.5 (-120) – 1-unit
This is one that got hot for us during the playoffs after Kristaps Porzingis got hurt, and now with KP sidelined to start the season, it’s right back on track. Tatum has been coming out of the gates swinging early in games this season, averaging 15.3 points in the first quarter through three games. He’s playing over 11 of the 12 minutes, and taking 8.3 shots per game in the first quarter — more than half of which are from downtown. Tatum’s even leaving some meat on the bone, somehow shooting just 6-for-12 from the free throw line in first quarters.
Tatum has scored at least 14 points in the first quarter of each game this season, and it looks like his role in the rotation is to play the full 12 minutes. He played the full quarter in each of the first two games, but came out after nine minutes against the Pistons, after picking up two fouls. The Bucks are a step up in class, but I’m trusting Tatum to keep this 3-0 trend rolling. He’s been clearing his first quarter point props with terrific margin, and is leading the NBA in first quarter scoring by 5.3 points per game.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
