The morning after Jameis Winston led the Browns to a most-improbable victory over the heavily-favored and bitter-AFC-North-rival Baltimore Ravens, the team announced that Winston will be the starting quarterback moving forward. Not exactly a surprise, seeing as how he was responsible for breakout performances from at least two Browns pass-catchers: David Njoku and Cedric Tillman.
It was clear to everyone who watched the game: Jameis Winston brought the same energy to the offense that he brings to his often-viral soundbytes from interviews and his various social media accounts. And he’s done it for a game-and-a-half already. He’s raised the fantasy values of Nick Chubb, Elijah Moore, and Jerry Jeudy, too.
The Browns have been mostly a fantasy football wasteland this year, but this news might be a rising tide that buoys all ships. Let’s take a look at yesterday’s breakouts to see if their advanced metrics suggest sustainable production.
Jameis Winston’s fantasy football impact
Cedric Tillman
You just love it when an industry-wide call goes right, don’t you? Tillman was one of the most popular waiver names last week, what with Amari Cooper’s departure to Buffalo, and the rising suspicion that Jameis Winston would be a vast improvement over Deshaun Watson.
It paid off. Tillman saw nine targets, caught seven of them, and converted them into 99 yards and two touchdowns. An absolute breakout game if ever there was a breakout game to be had. And, indeed, chances are, if you were brave enough to roll Ceddy in your starting lineup, you likely ate a W last night.
Going forward, I don’t think there’s any question Tillman is one of the Browns’s top outside weapons. He was second on the team to Jerry Jeudy yesterday in routes run (40 to Jeudy’s 43). And, in case you were wondering whether or not Tillman is just a beneficiary of opportunity, he’s not. Some of his advanced metrics from yesterday absolutely pop:
- Routes run %age against press coverage: 45.0%
- Tight window catch %age: 11.1%
- Average yards per target: 17.0
Which is to say, Tillman was getting fantastic releases against a decent Ravens secondary, and he was last on the team in tight window catch percentage. His 17.0 yards per target were the most on the team, likely because he was creating elite separation.
Tillman remains one of this week’s hottest waiver names. Important to note that Elijah Moore was the only person who out-targeted Tillman (12 to Tillman’s nine), so Jameis Winston is spreading the ball around.
But we know just how much gaining a quarterback’s trust in one game can lead to further explosive performances—just look at Ladd McConkey. Tillman is a priority add, and I’ll be starting him at FLEX going forward.
David Njoku
Happy National Tight Ends day to this man David Njoku. Seven targets, five receptions, 61 yards, and a touchdown. Which, normally, would be enough to have him hang near the top of the tight end performances on a given week. But it seems the league got the National Tight Ends Weekend memo; Njoku’s excellent performance was just one of many.
It sure feels like we’ve been asking ourselves the question about Njoku’s fantasy viability for far, far too long. Baker Mayfield made him relevant for a piece. It seemed, at least for a few games, like Deshaun Watson might, too. But he’s never been consistent, has Njoku.
But we’re not really in a position to be picky at tight end. And Njoku’s upswing feels as legitimate as Tillman’s. The veteran tight end ran 34 routes (third on the team), had a 157.3 NFL Next Gen Stats receiver rating, and was second to Elijah Moore in separation score yesterday (2.5 to 2.9).
There’s no question Njoku is a top-ten fantasy tight end with Jameis Winston as his quarterback. That’s likely too low. Top-five feels too much to me, but maybe top-seven?
Either way, he might be my favorite buy-high target right now, despite his injury history. Please do make sure you bake that risk into whatever moves you make for Njoku. And if you’re one of the people who were smart enough to hold onto him? Bravo. Courageous people don’t know they’re doing courageous things until the worst is over, it seems!
Bottom line
I mean, the answer is just a hard yes, here. The only way I’d become less stubborn about Tillman and Njoku as fantasy assets the rest of the season is if Winston crashed back to Earth. Which, I suppose, is a possibility; the Browns haven’t had a letdown spot like Week 9 after beating the Ravens since, maybe, Baker Mayfield’s TNF debut/win all those years ago.
But fantasy football is more about hope and risk than anything, these days. Injuries are plaguing some of our favorite fantasy football assets, taking some of our favorite players off the field. Not only are Tillman and Njoku savvy starters—they might help you have fun winning, too.
Just do me a favor: don’t forget about Elijah Moore, too? Those 12 targets yesterday (plus his team-leading separation score) are worth paying attention to as well.
You could do worse than get excited about this Cleveland Browns offense, especially seeing as their quarterback is one of the more eccentric and vocal figures in the entire NFL.
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