You couldn’t have asked for a more entertaining start to the World Series. We’ve seen it all. Clutch hitting, amazing starting pitching and some absolute web gems in the field. Both games have literally ended with the winning run at the plate and the bases loaded. These are the scenarios you conjure in your head when you’re eight-years-old playing make believe.
Let’s hope the excellent play carries over into Game 3, which gets going at 8:08 p.m. ET this evening. Make sure to get your bets in over at the DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Yankees
Walker Buehler Under 14.5 Outs Recorded (-140)
It’s just so hard for me to envision a scenario where Buehler throws five full innings in this game. Let’s think back to the RHP’s last start in the NLCS as an example of how even a good Buehler appearance couldn’t hit the over on this prop. In Game 3 against the Mets, the 30-year-old didn’t allow a single run, yet it took him 90 pitches to get through four innings of work.
I suspect that even if Buehler’s pitch count had been lower, he still wouldn’t have been allowed to face the top of the Mets’ order for a third time. That would make sense, as Buehler sported a horrific 7.14 FIP when seeing an opponent thrice during the regular season. As it pertains to tonight’s contest, I suspect there’s no possibility of Buehler squaring-off with Juan Soto more than twice — especially with a rested bullpen following an off-day. That means he has a maximum of 19 batters faced. He’d have to be quite efficient to stretch that figure across five innings.
Let’s also not forget how much Buehler has struggled in general in 2024. Over 75.1 innings in the regular season, Buehler registered a 5.38 ERA with a 5.54 FIP. His strikeout rate was a career-low 18.6% and most of the additional contact he was allowing left the ball park. In fact, among the 204 pitchers to throw at least 70 innings, Buehler’s 1.91 HR/9 was the eighth-highest mark in baseball. This is not the same man who was competing for Cy Young Awards less than a half-decade ago. This is a man who got demolished in his lone start in the NLDS and could have the same thing happen to him in the World Series.
Yankees Over 11.5 Total Bases (-115)
I’d say it’s pretty obvious that these two bets are correlated. In most of the possible scripts where the aforementioned Buehler doesn’t make it through five innings in Game 3, it’s because the Yankees had at least some success with the bats. New York fans who watched all non-Soto members of the team do nothing on Saturday night might scoff at the idea, but the Yankees are a fantastic lineup. They have been all year. To wit, New York led MLB in ISO (.192), wOBA (.336) and wRC+ (120) against right-handed pitching during the regular season.
The Yankees also led the American League in home runs (118) and ISO (.182) when playing at home. The Bronx Bomber truly lived up to their name when taking the field at Yankee Stadium — the AL’s no. 1 environment for home runs the past three seasons according the MLB Park Factors. I’d anticipate that trend continuing on Monday evening, as Buehler’s numbers are somehow far worse when specifically looking at his road splits. Away from Dodger Stadium, the right-hander surrendered an eye-popping 2.97 opponent long balls per nine and pitched to a 7.58 FIP. Needless to say, I’d be shocked if New York didn’t tag him for at least one home run in Game 3.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
