This year’s rookie QB class has been exceptional for fantasy football players. Coming into the season, everyone knew the potential of Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels, so both were highly drafted. If you missed out on those productive rookies, there’s still a rookie there for you, though–enter Bo Nix!
Nix’s Backstory
After Williams, Daniels and Drake Maye went off the board in the first three picks in last year’s NFL Draft, the Falcons surprised everyone by snagging Michael Penix Jr. as the fourth QB off the board. J.J. McCarthy was the next QB picked by the Vikings at No. 10, and Nix wasn’t drafted until the Broncos were on the clock at No. 12.
He landed in a great situation, though, with coach Sean Payton and the Broncos, who parted ways with Russell Wilson and only had Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson on the roster. Nix quickly won the job with a strong training camp and preseason, and so far has been very good as the Broncos’ signal-caller.
As is normal for a rookie QB, there were some growing pains for Nix, and the Broncos dropped the first two games of the season. For fantasy, he was basically an afterthought at that point, although he did get his first NFL touchdown.
Happy #NationalTightEndsDay to all who celebrate!
📺: CBS pic.twitter.com/QHZvkV6rQX
— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) October 27, 2024
In Week 3, things started to turn his way. He led the Broncos to a huge road win over the Bucs and threw for 216 yards. While he still hadn’t thrown his first NFL touchdown pass, he did run for a score in that game and posted 19.34 fantasy points.
Week 4 was a wash statistically in awful conditions in New York, but he still picked up another road win over the Jets.
Nix’s Emergence
In the last four weeks, Nix has posted over 21 fantasy points three times, all at home. He threw for multiple touchdowns and 200+ yards in a win over the Raiders and a close loss to the Chargers.
After those two strong games, the Broncos rolled on the road over the Saints in Week 7 on Thursday Night Football. Since it was so lop-sided, Nix only threw for 164 yards, but he saved his fantasy day by running for a season-high 75 rushing yards.
In Week 8, Nix got another win for his Broncos, improving to 5-1 since the first two weeks of the season. He posted a career-high 29.8 fantasy points, throwing for 284 yards and three touchdowns and also running for another score. He was the No. 2 QB of the week behind only Jalen Hurts.
Nix’s outlook
Since Week 3, Nix has been the No. 7 QB in fantasy football in total fantasy points, and since Week 5, he ranks No. 3 behind only Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson. He’s definitely been a QB1 over that span, but can he keep up his strong play the rest of the season?
Next week, the Broncos are on the road against the Ravens, who have given up the second-most fantasy points to QBs. I rank him just outside my top 10 for this week, but I’d have him at No. 11 or No. 12 in this matchup.
Nix and the Broncos have a very late bye week in Week 14. Before that they have road games against the Chiefs and Raiders and home games against the Falcons and Browns. Those matchups aren’t as good as this week’s against the Ravens but should give him a chance to put up good games.
When Nix might really help you, though, is when it comes to the fantasy playoffs. In Week 15 he faces the Colts and in Week 17 he has what looks to be a favorable matchup against the Bengals. That’s a long way away, but Nix deserves attnetion if you need a replacement for a lost QB or a backup QB (aka a replacement before you need it).
He’s owned in only about 25% of season-long leagues and is still very affordable at $5,900 in DFS contests for Week 9 like the NFL $2.75M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st].
He and the Broncos are nine-point underdogs in Baltimore this week and are +125 to make the playoffs after their 5-3 start. While Daniels has run away as the early favorite at -400, Nix is +1400 for Offensive Rookie of the Year but could surge if Daniels struggles or gets hurt.
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