Caleb Williams and the Bears face Jayden Daniels and the Commanders on Sunday, potentially with the Rookie of the Year odds on the line. Here is an analysis of the current Rookie of the Year odds at DraftKings Sportsbook, and how the Jayden Daniels injury could impact the race.
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Race
At DraftKings Sportsbook, Jayden Daniels is the current favorite to win the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year at -140. Caleb Williams is just behind him at +115 to win the award. There is then a massive drop-off to Malik Nabers who has the third-best odds at +2000.
There is still a lot of football left this season, however, it appears to be a two-man race between the #1 overall pick Caleb Williams and the #2 overall pick Jayden Daniels. The two top picks will face off on Sunday with both of their teams playing well ahead of this matchup. However, an injury to Jayden Daniels has potentially thrown a wrench into this intriguing matchup.
Daniels injured his ribs against the Panthers early on in the game and was replaced by Marcus Mariota. Daniels has yet to practice as of Friday and the latest report on Friday morning is that he is not present at the open part of Friday’s practice either. If Daniels misses this game, the Commanders’ chances of winning go down, and future re-injury risk becomes a real concern for Daniels. Missing almost two entire games, including last week, will also see Daniels start to fall further behind Caleb Williams in statistical categories that are so important to voters when they decide who should be Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Both of these rookie quarterbacks have played great and have their teams playing winning football this season. The Commanders have been one of the surprise teams in the league as they sit at 5-2 atop the NFC East. Meanwhile, the Bears are 4-2 in the extremely competitive NFC North. Currently, Caleb Williams has 1,317 passing yards and nine touchdowns in six games. Daniels has 1,410 and six touchdowns in seven games. Daniels also has 372 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns, while Williams has 169 rushing yards.
Caleb Williams really struggled the first two weeks, partially due to bad offensive line play, but he has really come into his own in recent weeks. If you eliminate Weeks 1 and 2, Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels are two of the four best quarterbacks in the NFL measured by EPA+CPOE composite. Lamar Jackson is at the top of the list followed by Jayden Daniels, Joe Burrow, Caleb Williams and Josh Allen. That is elite company for these two rookie quarterbacks.
When looking at the team around the quarterbacks, the Bears appear to have more talent. The running back room led by D’Andre Swift and the wide receiver group led by DJ Moore are superior to the Commanders’ offensive weapons. However, the biggest difference is the defense of the Bears over the defense of the Commanders. The Bears’ defense is 6th in the NFL in EPA/play while the Commanders’ defense is 17th. If both quarterbacks end up with similar counting stats, their team’s record could be the difference in who wins the award. If the Bears beat the Commanders on Sunday (they are currently three-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook) they will have the better winning percentage and be on a better trajectory to finish with the better record.
These ROTY odds could flip immediately if Williams and the Bears beat the Commanders on Sunday, which I expect them to do. If Williams finishes with more passing yards and passing touchdowns than Daniels, which he is currently projected to do, the Bears have a better record than the Commanders, and the Bears beat the Commanders head-to-head it would be hard not to give the award to Caleb Williams. This Jayden Daniels injury concerns could also be a recurring problem with the way that he plays. He is still too willing to take hits.
Bet to make
I am betting Caleb Williams to win Rookie of the Year before the showdown between the Bears and the Commanders. Hopefully, Jayden Daniels will be able to play so that we can see these two top rookies face off. At the moment, however, that looks very unlikely.
That surely puts Caleb Williams in the driver’s seat to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year so this could be your final chance to get Williams at plus-money to win the award.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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