The Steelers host the Giants in a cross-conference Monday Night Football matchup. Here is how to bet on the game at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Giants (+6) at Steelers o/u 36.5
Giants Team Breakdown
The Giants’ offense is in a rut, combining for just ten points across their last two games. However, prior to that, the Giants were playing well with wins over the Seahawks and Browns, along with close losses to the Cowboys and Commanders. The Giants’ defensive line is playing at an elite level, led by DT Dexter Lawrence. The Giants should be able to generate some pressure on Russell Wilson and control the line of scrimmage in the run game.
On offense, Daniel Jones is severely holding back the Giants. Brian Daboll is a great offensive head coach, the offensive line has improved significantly from last season (although they will be missing star LT Andrew Thomas for the rest of the year), and Malik Nabers is a star at wide receiver. Rookie RB Tyrone Tracy Jr. has also shown flashes of being able to produce big plays in the running and passing game. Daboll should be concocting an expert game plan with an extra day to prepare for this game. If he can find a way to get the ball in those playmakers’ hands and allow Daniel Jones to use his legs, the Giants could have some success moving the ball.
Steelers Team Breakdown
Russell Wilson played well against the Jets in his first game for the Steelers. However, his performance might not be very sustainable. Wilson was throwing his famous “moon ball” over the top of the Jets’ secondary as Cris Collinsworth said roughly 75 times during the broadcast last week. However, the Jets’ secondary was not really the Jets’ secondary last week. They were without DJ Reed and Michael Carter, two of their top three corners and two of the best corners in the league, as well as starting safety Chuck Clark.
Wilson was throwing against a secondary full of backups and even third-stringers at certain positions. Also, the Steelers receivers created basically no separation and Wilson missed on a lot of throws but George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth made some circus catches. Russell Wilson’s expected completion percentage in the game was 60.8%. It’s only a one-game sample size but that would be the worst expected completion percentage of any quarterback that has started at least one game this season. Those numbers indicate that the success he was having through the air is not sustainable over the course of multiple games.
Pick and Prediction
There is a unique trend that the Giants find themselves on this week. When two teams play each other and one team lost by 17+ the previous week while the other team won by 17+ the previous week, the team that lost by 17+ has been profitable. The Giants were blown out by the Eagles last week, while the Steelers dominated the Jets. Typically, there is a market overreaction to two extreme results like that and that is why the team that lost by 17+ is 114-77-4 (59.6%) ATS in the matchup against the team that won by 17+.
Despite the struggles across his career, Daniel Jones is 29-23 (55.8%) ATS as an underdog. Conversely, Russell Wilson is 58-68 (46%) ATS as a favorite. Also, much has been made about Daniel Jones’ SU record of 1-15 in primetime but he is just 6-10 ATS which is still not great but obviously not nearly as catastrophic. Russell Wilson has also struggled in primetime in recent years despite last week’s win. Early on in his career, Wilson performed well in primetime but over the last six seasons, Wilson is 8-16 (33.3%) ATS in primetime. Additionally, Mike Tomlin is the greatest ATS coach in NFL history when his team is an underdog. However, when his team is a favorite, they are just 93-101-5 (47.9%) ATS.
This should be a low-scoring game where both defensive lines will be able to generate pressure and make life difficult for the opposing quarterbacks. Oddly, I would rather have Daniel Jones in a game like that because he is significantly more mobile than Russell Wilson and should be able to make some plays with his legs. Mike Tomlin is also incredibly conservative when it comes to fourth downs which is part of the reason the Steelers struggle to cover as favorites. Meanwhile, Brian Daboll will be very aggressive and try to steal a win in Pittsburgh. Therefore, I am taking the six points and backing the Giants in this game.
Best Bet: Giants +6
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