The 49ers host the Cowboys in a high-profile Sunday Night Football matchup. Here is how to bet on the game at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cowboys (+4) at 49ers o/u 47
Matchup Breakdown
It has been an up-and-down season for the Cowboys but at 3-3 coming off of their bye week, they are at a pivotal point in their season. The 49ers are also at a critical point in their season. They were the favorites to win the NFC entering the season but they are now 3-4 and have injury issues all over the field. Christian McCaffrey will still be out for this game, Brandon Aiyuk is out for the year, Jauan Jennings is doubtful for this game, George Kittle is recovering from a foot injury that has him limited in practice, and Deebo Samuel is recovering from pneumonia.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys are coming off of a bye week and should be mentally and physically fresh for this game. They have had two weeks to prepare for revenge on the team that has knocked them out of the postseason multiple times in recent years. Dak Prescott has been great off of a bye week in his career. Prescott is 18-6 (75%) ATS with extended rest in his career. Mike McCarthy is also great on extended rest, going 38-23-3 ATS (62.3%) throughout his career.
With so much time to prepare, the Cowboys should be able to attack a San Francisco defense that has been vulnerable this season. The 49ers’ defense is 20th in success rate and 26th in EPA/rush. Teams have been able to dominate them at the line of scrimmage, pick up yardage on early downs, and convert on 3rd and 4th down which has not been the case in recent years. From 2020-2023, San Francisco was 3rd in the league in opponent success rate compared to 20th this season.
Pick and Prediction
CeeDee Lamb will be the best offensive player on either sideline this week and should be able to pick up chunks of yardage against the 49ers’ defense. The 49ers have major issues with defensive success rate and the Cowboys’ offense has been phenomenal by that metric. They are 5th in the league in offensive success rate and 4th in dropback success rate. Despite their perceived issues, the offense has been really productive and has been able to pick up yards when it needs to through the air.
Brock Purdy is playing his worst season in the NFL with so many of his weapons injured. Over the last two seasons, Purdy has led the NFL in EPA/play and EPA+CPOE composite. This season, Purdy is 11th in EPA/play and 13th in EPA+CPOE composite. That is a significant downgrade from his production and with so many weapons still missing or not at 100%, it’s hard to trust this 49ers offense. The Cowboys haven’t been great on defense this year but they should be able to hold up against the 49ers in their current state.
Ultimately, the spot could not be more perfect for the Cowboys. They should be very well-prepared for this game and have good ways to attack the 49ers on both sides of the ball. This game should be close and come down to the final possession in either direction so take the points with Dallas.
Best Bet: Cowboys +4
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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