The injury report for the Panthers continues to get worse as the week goes on, heading into a Week 8 matchup in Denver. While I’m expecting Denver to get the win, I think going to a player prop on Javonte Williams is a terrific look in this one.
Carolina Panthers at Denver Broncos
Javonte Williams OVER 62.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
2-units
After getting their only win of the season in Andy Dalton’s first start of the year, the Panthers have continued to take steps back offensively each week. After scoring just seven points against a pretty poor Washington defense last week, Andy Dalton and his top-two receivers will be among a lengthy list of key Panthers out for this game. Denver has emerged as a double digit home favorite, and now this is shaping up as a game we should see the Broncos pound the rock quite a bit.
Williams hasn’t had a spectacular season, but had by far his best game in Week 7 in New Orleans. Williams went for 88 rushing yards and a pair of touchdowns on 14 carries, which was his third time topping the 60-yard mark in his last four games. Williams has had a pretty good grasp on the lead back role for Denver, and that shouldn’t change with a long week of rest following his best game 10 days earlier.
Enter a Carolina defense that ranks dead last in the NFL against the run, giving up over 162 yards per game on the ground. The only game the Panthers have not allowed a running back over 70 rushing yards the game they won against the Raiders, who rank 30th in rushing offense this season. Otherwise, in seven total games, the Panthers have still allowed seven running backs over 70 yards, as Atlanta has both their backs top 95 yards just a couple of weeks ago.
Bryce Young has only managed to score 13 total points in his two starts this season, so this game could get out of hand. Eventually, Williams could wind up sharing some carries with the backups, but I think his damage on the ground will be a big part of breaking this game open. Carolina has also allowed the most rushing touchdowns this season at nearly two per game, so Williams makes for a solid anytime touchdown bet. Working in some Carolina team total unders also feels like a strong angle.
But my best bet in this game will be taking Williams to go over his rushing yardage prop in arguably the best matchup he could ask for.
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