GPPs are not won by using all of the most popular players on the slate. Being a contrarian in a big-field event can help separate your lineup, and gain you leverage over the field when some of the more popular names bust. The goal of this article won’t be to highlight the popular “play-it-safe” names that your Dad talks about at family dinner.
No. Us? We’re looking for some diamonds in the rough. Guys that no one talks about — not even their own coaches.
OK, we’re not going that deep, but you get the idea — lower ownership and high upside. We’re looking for players who we feel good about but still make us feel alive inside. That’s the goal.
Let’s dive into Week 8.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.75M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st].
Top DFS Stacks
Game Stack: Green Bay at Jacksonville
Jordan Love ($7,100) – Jayden Reed ($6,700) – Tank Bigsby ($6,300) – Christian Watson ($5,100)
The Packers take on the Jaguars this week, in a game where Green Bay is set as -4.0 road favorites, with a 27.0 point implied team total. This should be a ceiling spot for Jordan Love, who enters this game second in the league in TD passes with 15, despite missing two games. This week, Love will take on a Jaguars secondary that is ranked dead last in EPA per dropback, and has allowed the most TD passes and fantasy points to opposing QBs this season.
Love’s floor here is likely two TD passes, but his ceiling is much higher than that, which makes pairing him with multiple of his pass-catchers make sense. Jayden Reed is still on the injury report with an ankle issue, but he’s now a full two weeks removed from when he suffered that injury against Arizona, and managed to play through it last week against Houston. The Jaguars nickel corner Darnell Savage is ranked 109th out of 140 DBs this year in coverage. He’s been burned repeatedly of late, allowing two TD passes to Keenan Allen in Week 6, and a TD last week to KJ Osborn. This a great spot to deploy Reed.
Reed can score from distance, as can Christian Watson, who I expect will be the lowest-owned of the Packers WRs, given that he’s caught just four passes the last two games. One of those passes went for a 44-yard TD, however, against the Cardinals, and with Watson getting another weak secondary to attack there is a good chance he and Love connect again this week for a score. Watson has caught six TD passes from Love over his last 10 regular season games (that he’s started and finished) so while I don’t expect him to see a ton of targets, there is a great shot of a big play or two that results in some big totals for this correlated duo.
On the other side of this game, it’s hard to see the Jaguars hurting the Packers anywhere but on the ground. Green Bay gets good pressure (Trevor Lawrence’s Kryptonite) and has allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs this season. However, they’re not quite as impenetrable on the ground, allowing two 100-yard games over their last three starts, to opposing RBs. I doubt think Tank Bigsby reaches the 25-carry mark that Joe Mixon managed the previous week against Green Bay, but given that Bigsby already has 10 rushes of 10+ yards this season, and two rushes of 50+ yards, he likely won’t need that kind of volume for a big day in this spot.
Bigsby is a little risky given that Green Bay could make this game out of hand at some point, and force Jacksonville into more dropbacks, but it’s hard to see them abandoning the run altogether as Bigsby has been their best big-play option this year.
Quarterback
Bo Nix ($5,600)
The Broncos enter this week’s game against the Panthers as -10.5 favorites with a healthy 26.0 implied team total. A lot of people will be playing the Denver DST in this spot, and while Bryce Young isn’t someone we need to fear, high ownership on a DST is almost always worth fading. One way to gain some leverage against a potentially chalky DST is by playing the QB of that team, which in this case is Bo Nix. Nix could easily account for three to four TDs in this spot if Denver chooses to pass around the goal line and also has rushing upside, having averaged 36 rush yards per game, to go along with three rushing TDs this season.
We don’t have to discuss the Panthers defense much, but they’re basically a no-name group at this point with injuries to multiple key players. After giving up two passing TDs to Commanders backup Marcus Mariota last week, they’ve also now allowed multiple passing TDs in all but one game. Nix makes plenty of sense as a cheap piunt play in Week 8, and if you are looking to pair him with a receiver you can create some ultra-low-priced stacks, using the likes of Troy Franklin ($4,100) or Lucas Krull ($2,700) to gain your correlation.
Running Back
Higher End: Kenneth Walker ($7,800)
Walker has now scored in four of five starts this season and has seven TDs on the year. He’s in an explosive scheme with new OC Ryan Grubb, who clearly prefers to use Walker when down near the goal line. The Bills aren’t a terrible matchup either. Buffalo has allowed six TDs to opposing RBs this year, with the equally explosive Breece Hall averaging 6.27 ypc against them in Week 6 in an 18-113 effort on the ground.
I fully expect the Hawks to lean a little more on Walker this week. This is thanks to both the matchup and the fact DK Metcalf (leg) is a little banged up and hasn’t practiced this week yet, as of Thursday night. If Metcalf doesn’t play, we could easily see Walker approach 20+ touches. His receiving usage would also potentially get a bump. It’s a great ceiling spot for Walker all-around in a game with a 47.5-point total and a close 3.0 spread.
Lower End: Tyler Allgeier ($5,100)
This week seems like a perfectly fine time to use Tyler Allgeier again in GPPs, who produced 105 yards and a TD on 18 carries two games ago against the Panthers. The Buccaneers aren’t at Carolina’s level, team-wise, but their defense is nearly as soft. They’re just 17th in EPA against the rush and have allowed 5.3 ypc this season, which is the third-worst mark in the league.
With Tampa Bay also without their top two receivers this week (and going forward) it’s likely that the Falcons stay in a run-heavy game script on offense for most of this game, which favors Allgeier getting 15+ touches again. There is risk involved with using Allgeier any week, as he’s not likely to be very involved in hurry-up offenses or passing downs, but the higher likelihood of a beneficial game script, paired with a great matchup, makes this a good time to look to him as a cheap RB play.
Wide Receiver
Higher End: Ja’Marr Chase ($8,500)
With Tyreek Hill ($7,000) price as it is, it’s likely to suppress the ownership levels on some of the other big-name wide receivers. . Ja’Marr Chase is set with the highest price at WR. Unless DFS players want to build out extreme WR-heavy lineups, they’re not likely to include Hill and Chase together that often.
That should keep Chase’s ownership levels down, and also make him a good leverage target against Hill lineups, in a great matchup against the Eagles. Philadelphia has already allowed seven TDs to opposing WRs, despite having only played six games, and while their overall defensive stats took a hit up last week thanks to the Giants’ porous O-Line, they’ve struggled against good offenses and elite WRs this season.
If you are fading Hill this week, Chase offers similar or better upside in this spot, making him the perfect pivot and a great way to ensure you’ll be maxing out your upside in lineups without the Miami chalk.
Lower End: Cedric Tillman ($3,300)
Tilman was a great punt play last week, going for eight catches and 81 yards on 12 targets against the Bengals. He essentially stepped right into the Amari Cooper role for Cleveland and played the second-most snaps of any Browns WR. This week, he gets an even better matchup against a Ravens secondary that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing WRs this season and has allowed seven receiving TDs to the position over their last three games.
Tillman’s a bit of an unknown but he’s a big outside body at 6’3 210lbs+ and will likely be facing a Ravens secondary that is also without their top corner in Marlon Humphrey, who hasn’t practiced yet this week. Given the lack of salary movement we saw on Tillman after last week’s performance, I don’t see much downside in going back to him again this week. Even a 50-yard game should be enough to return some value at this price and he certainly has a great shot to do better than that given the potential for Cleveland to be a pass-heavy game script late in this game.
Tight End
Dalton Schultz ($4,100)
Schultz has a fantastic matchup this weekend and is in a clear breakout spot. The Colts have been a pass funnel defense this season that has been atrocious at covering the middle of the field. They’ve already allowed four receiving TDs to opposing TEs and have also allowed the third-most receptions to the position. Last week, they essentially allowed Tyler Huntley and Jonnu Smith to play their own game of pitch and catch, with Smith going for seven catches and 76 yards.
Schultz only caught one pass last week, but a lot of that was game flow induced, and he’s been a solid part of this Texans offense with Nico Collins out, posting around a 20% target share over the last three games. Just given how much Stroud struggled to get the ball to his WRs last week, we may see him move back to Schultz more this week to take advantage of this matchup. At just $4,100, the PPR points alone could push Schultz into 3-4x return territory and if he finds the endzone, has the potential to push toward a top-three finish at TE.
Defense/Special Teams
Colts ($2,700)
The Colts have started to get a little healthier on defense and have stopped the bleeding on the scoreboard after a couple of poor games against the Steelers and Jaguars. Their last two outings have resulted in holding their opponents to under 150 passing yards and it was a great sign that rookie edge Latu Laitu was able to come down with his second sack last week, which gives them an added element of disruption going forward.
The Texans don’t look like an appealing matchup, but they’ve been poor at moving the ball the last two weeks without Nico Collins in the lineup. They’re also allowing CJ Stroud to get sacked at a high rate as Houston is currently allowing the eighth-most sacks against per game. With the Colts pass rush trending up, this is a spot where I could see their defense rising up with some kind of scoop and score, and just racking up extra points by taking down Stroud numerous times.
At just $2,700, they’re ultra-cheap, which helps out from a lineup building perspective, and won’t be very highly owned given the name value that Stroud holds among most DFS players.
Be sure to set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.75M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st]
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