Despite Zion Williamson being ruled out late with an illness, Dejounte Murray fracturing his hand during the game, and sharp money coming in on the Bulls, the Pelicans won and covered their home opener on Wednesday night. While Murray will miss at least four weeks with the hand injury, all signs point to Zion making his season debut in Portland. I think this is the game of the night as it pertains to betting angles, and have a few plays lined up for this one.
Pelicans -5.5 (-115) — 1-unit
The Pelicans are a public play, as over 90% of the money on the spread and moneyline are backing New Orleans, per our DK Network betting splits. I’m not really afraid of that this early in the season, though. The Blazers played dreadful basketball on Wednesday night against the Warriors, and I’m not sure the number has caught up on them.
I think it’s easy for people to look right past losing to the Warriors because of the perception of how good Golden State is. But New Orleans came into the season with a higher win total, and looked good in its opener as well — and that was without Williamson. While Murray drops out of the rotation, CJ McCollum can take over the reigns at points guard. Zion should be a matchup nightmare for Portland, and the Pelicans should see a ton of open looks from downtown. There’s blowout potential here.
Pelicans Team Total OVER 112.5 (-105) — 1-unit
I mentioned how bad Portland looked on Wednesday, but it looked specifically undisciplined on defense. After a groggy first quarter that had the game tied 21-21, the Blazers went on to lose by 36 points, giving up a total of 140 to Golden State (yes, that’s 119 points in the final three quarters). The Pelicans just played in a fast paced matchup against Chicago, putting up 123 points in that one. This is probably an even better spot for New Orleans to put up points.
CJ McCollum OVER 24.5 Points + Assists (-115) — 1-unit
McCollum has a couple of things working in his favor here. He’ll be returning to his former stomping grounds in Portland, where he has played pretty well since being traded. He averages over 21 points per game in nine matchups against Portland, and just shy of seven assists. McCollum scored 23 in the season opener, and should get some good open looks in this game. But I really want to include assists here, and if you want to bet on his assist prop at plus-money, I feel it’s in a good spot.
Aside from having seven or more assists in seven of his nine games against Portland, McCollum should take over most of the point guard duties with Murray out. Despite 10 dimes from Murray on Wednesday, CJ still had five assists himself. I think we could see a pretty big uptick to that number here, taking over more of the usage against a laughable defense.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
