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New York Yankees at Los Angeles Dodgers
The Pick: Game Total over 8.5 runs -112
We have two pitchers taking the mound that are supposed to be acting like aces, but aren’t. It’s been a rough playoffs for both Gerrit Cole and Jack Flaherty. With their opponents here in the World Series, I’m not thinking it’ll get much better for either of them.
Cole has been a bit shaky with his command during the postseason. Through 16.1 innings, he’s walked six batters to give him a 3.3 BB/9. Normally, this isn’t a bad number for a pitcher but it’s high for someone like Cole, who is usually around 2.1. This isn’t a lineup you can afford to give free passes but they will draw walks. Game 1 expected lineup has a combined 9.7% BB% against righties on the season. Between the walks and a very low 6.6 K/9, Cole could struggle against this power hitting lineup. The Dodgers have smashed fastballs from righties and getting Freddie Freeman back in the lineup will only help those numbers.
As for Flaherty, he’s been a total disaster. Through 15.1 innings, Flaherty has allowed 12 runs on 15 hits with seven walks and only eight strikeouts. It’s a stark difference from what we saw during the regular season when he had a 3.17 ERA and a 3.51 xERA. Flaherty could simply be running on fumes at this point. His 162 innings during the regular season is the most we’ve seen since 2019 back when he was with the Cardinals. With the way the Yankees were hitting in the series against the Guardians, this could be another short outing for the Dodgers starter.
The Pick: Freddie Freeman over 1.5 H/R/RBI -115
Getting Freeman back in the lineup will be huge for the Dodgers. To be fair, Tommy Edman did a fantastic job moving up in the lineup in place of Freeman. But, if someone had to choose, I think they’d take Freeman over Edman. The matchup is a good one for him, as I mentioned he crushes four seamers from righties. He’ll enter this matchup with .397 wOBA, a .278 ISO and a 10% BB% against that pitch. With the way both Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts have been hitting atop the lineup, Freeman could easily have multiple RBI opportunities in front of him.
The Pick: Gleyber Torres over 0.5 runs scored -105
This is not a bad price at all for the Yankees leadoff hitter to score a run. Tores has scored nine times in nine games for the Yankees during the postseason. He’s been getting on base at a very high clip as well with a .400 OBP. With how poorly Flaherty has been pitching, I like Torres to get on base and then have the big bats behind him knock him in. Just as Cole has been doing, Flaherty is also struggling with his command, owning a 4.1 BB/9. I like getting Torres to score at almost even money, which is solid for a leadoff hitter.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
