The Vikings will travel to Los Angeles to take on the Rams in an NFC Thursday Night Football matchup. Here is how to bet on the game at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Vikings (-2.5) at Rams o/u 48
Vikings Team Breakdown
The Vikings finally suffered their first loss of the season last week against the Lions but they are still one of the best teams in the league. The Lions have the fourth-best offense in the league by EPA/play and they were finally able to conquer the Vikings’ defense. Jared Goff played a nearly flawless game and the Lions broke off some explosive runs and it still took a game-winning field goal to defeat the Vikings. There is no need for concern around the Vikings because of that one loss.
Sam Darnold is playing at a really high level and ranks 10th in the NFL in EPA+CPOE composite. Darnold made one mistake against the Lions but overall, he played a great game and all three of the Vikings’ receivers had explosive plays. Aaron Jones also had one of his best games as a Viking averaging 6.6 YPC. The Vikings’ offense should keep firing on all cylinders if they can stay healthy.
Rams Team Breakdown
The Rams finally picked up their second win of the season against the Raiders. They held on for dear life in that game which was another lackluster offensive effort. It took three Gardner Minshew interceptions to get the Rams a victory against the sputtering Raiders. The Rams’ offense is 22nd in the league in EPA/dropback and Matthew Stafford is 26th among qualified quarterbacks in EPA+CPOE composite. Cooper Kupp will be making his return this week but his production levels could be lower as he works his way back from injury.
The Rams have struggled on defense as well. They are 26th in the NFL in EPA/play, 26th in EPA/dropback and 28th in EPA/rush. They had given up 24+ points in every game this season until last week against the Raiders, making them 25th in the NFL in scoring defense. They are definitely feeling the effects of an Aaron Donald-less world and the departure of elite DC Raheim Morris has also affected the unit.
Pick and Prediction
The Vikings finally slipped up last week in a close game against the Lions but they are still one of the most dangerous teams in the NFL. They are the best defense in the league in EPA/play including the top rush defense and the third-ranked pass defense. Even with the return of Cooper Kupp, the Rams should struggle to move the ball.
Matthew Stafford has not looked like his old self this season, albeit he has had a lack of weapons. However, Brian Flores dominated every offense he saw this season until last week. He should take away Kyren Williams on the ground and focus all of his attention on Kupp and force Stafford to hit the other receivers to have any production.
The Rams have the 26th-ranked defense by EPA/play and have struggled to defend the rush and the pass. Aaron Jones has run the ball well and with a dangerous wide receiver corps, led by Justin Jefferson, this Minnesota offense is so hard to stop.
Last week’s loss should have served as a wake-up call to motivate this Minnesota team to refocus their efforts. They are so well-coached on both sides of the ball and that is essential on a short week. They should be the more prepared team and they are the more talented team on both sides of the ball. That should be enough to get them the win and cover the short spread on Thursday night.
Best Bet: Vikings -2.5
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