Those of you who faded the Lions defense last week—against my advice—were right, for all the reasons you might have faded a D/ST in a potential barn-burner. I expected it to be a bit more of a smash-mouth game, but both these defenses let up explosive plays at least once or twice a quarter.
The Vikings D/ST managed to score a touchdown in that game, so we shouldn’t have sat them. 13.0 FPTs from your D/ST slot is a fantastic start.
We did, however, hit on starting the Rams defense, who posted 18.0 FPTs against the Raiders. We knew it was going to be an all-out effort from a young Rams defense against a reeling (and injured) Las Vegas offense. And we figured Baker Mayfield might continue his primetime passing ways against the Ravens D/ST, who we sat, and wisely so: they only posted 2.0 FPTs.
A two-for-four week. Not good enough. Time to be better!
Start ’em
Green Bay Packers D/ST (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars; 38.5% rostered)
This is the last week I’m starting any unit against this Jaguars team. If the Packers D/ST can’t contain Trevor Lawrence and this iteration of the Jaguars’ offense, then I think it’s time for me to re-evaluate just how bad I think Jacksonville is.
Maybe their 7.0 FPT effort against Houston on Sunday disappointed folks enough—and broadly enough—that they saw their rostership percentage drop so much.
That’s folly. Pick them up and roll them out against one of the more inconsistent, mistake-prone offenses in all of 2024.
Chicago Bears D/ST (vs. Washington Commanders; 45.1% rostered)
Everyone’s expecting the Caleb Williams versus (hopefully) Jayden Daniels matchup at 4:25 ET on Sunday to be a slam-the-over sort of game. Have we forgotten that the Bears defense has been the most impressive season-long asset on this team? They have legitimate budding superstars in Kyler Gordon and Brisker, and their front seven has been above-league-average.
I think there’s no doubt that Jayden Daniels is playing in this game, and the Bears are planning for him to be as mobile as he’s been all year.
This is a unit on the rise who’s had two weeks to prepare for this game. A rallying-cry win in London. I think this might be a low-scoring, physical game in which the Bears D/ST nets us 10+ FPTs.
Honorable mention: Los Angeles Rams D/ST (vs. Minnesota Vikings; 5.3% rostered)
Thursday Night Football game, and I don’t usually like advocating for starting a defense on TNF. Especially one who’s had as many early-season woes as the Rams.
But here’s what I said about the Rams defense with regards to their win on Sunday in my What to expect from Cooper Kupp’s fantasy football return in NFL Week 8 column:
However, I earnestly believe this is a Rams team that believes it was dealt a crap hand. Devastating injury after devastating injuriy to begin the year. This is a roster comprised of largely the same group who ran the table after Week 9 in 2023; it’s fresh in their minds, and they know they can win.
Off the bye, I believe the Rams went into Week 7’s matchup against the Raiders thinking to themselves—with Kupp inactive, Whittington only seeing the field for nine snaps on offense, Kyren Williams touching the ball only 21 times, and Stafford only throwing the ball 23 times—that if the defense couldn’t win them this game, the Vikings game would be hopeless, anyways. The defense won them the game. McVay gave all three game balls to the secondary. Momentum.
This is a unit that’s going to be playing inspired football tonight. Whether you believe that means they can contain this Vikings offense is your call.
I think they’ve got as good a shot as any to be the most surprising unit in Week 8. If for nothing else just because their team needs them to be.
Sit ’em
Minnesota Vikings D/ST (vs. Los Angeles Rams; 76.3% rostered)
I would be whatsoever surprised if the Vikings are aware enough of the stakes for their opponent tonight. I really do not like fading well-coached units like this Brian Flores-led group, but, as mentioned above, I do like to fade defenses on Thursday night.
This defense played well against the Detroit Lions in Week 7, despite eventually losing the game. Four sacks, a fumble return, and a touchdown is a fantastic effort in the defensive phase of the game. No way this unit didn’t gain confidence in themselves.
So—why fade them? Simple. I believe that the Los Angeles Rams believe this game might as well be their 2024 Super Bowl. In 2023, the Rams ran the table after starting the year 3-6, clinched a wildcard berth, and lost to the Lions.
The Rams are 2-5 now. Cooper Kupp returns tonight; Puka Nacua (knee) is, strangely, questionable. Gamesmanship? Superhuman recovery? Who knows. But this is a must-win situation for a team whose core players are becoming financially untenable. All this, too, dangerously close to the trade deadline, with needy contenders foaming at the mouth to toss cash and picks at LA for Stafford and Kupp.
Bottom line: I’m not starting any defense against what I believe to be the unfathomable depth of Sean McVay’s entire offensive bag.
San Francisco 49ers D/ST (vs. Dallas Cowboys; 87.5% rostered)
A 3-3 Dallas team against a 3-4 San Francisco 49ers team here in Week 7. The animosity between these two squads, especially after George Kittle’s edgy outfit choice when they met in the regular season in 2023. If you recall, the Niners won that game 42-10.
I don’t think that’ll happen this year with the Niners’ injury woes. The Cowboys defense is not whatsoever the stout unit we’re used to seeing the last few seasons. But I think things are going to get a lot uglier in Dallas if they lose this week than they might in San Francisco should they suffer a defeat.
Call me high-strung, but I do believe so many teams with fringe records see this week as a potential fulcrum for their season. This is absolutely true of the Dallas offense.
Kellen Moore’s bag against this injured Niners squad? I’ll let them ride the bench this week.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is thegreatdansby9) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information
